Israeli Assessment Sees Increased Likelihood of Conflict with Iran Involving Israel

Israeli security officials have recently assessed that the probability of a military confrontation with Iran, involving Israeli participation, has increased. Despite this heightened risk, the preferred option for U.S. President Donald Trump remains reaching an agreement with Iran through ongoing negotiations. Trump has not yet made a final decision on how to proceed regarding Iran.

In recent days, the Israel Defense Forces have been on high alert following missile launches from Iran toward Jordan, marking the closest such activity to Israel in months. The United States had issued an early warning to Jordan before the launches, which were interpreted as Iran testing the boundaries of the conflict zone with Israel. Although tensions have risen, both the U.S. and Iran are reportedly cautious about escalating into a regional war, maintaining some hope for continued diplomatic talks.

Israeli officials report that the chance of escalation has grown significantly compared to previous weeks. A senior Israeli source indicated ongoing communication with the U.S., but noted that Trump is unlikely to hesitate in increasing the intensity of strikes against Iran if deemed necessary. Concurrently, the U.S. is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East with additional aircraft and refueling tankers, while diplomatic efforts continue, led by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, to de-escalate tensions and revive negotiations.