Former Israeli Intelligence Chief Highlights Iran’s Strategic Gains and Nuclear Threat

Former head of Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN), Tamir Hayman, outlined Iran’s four key strategic achievements that it values more than any ceasefire or negotiations. These include regime survival and stability, control over the Strait of Hormuz, enforcement of restrictions on Israel via Hezbollah, and preservation of its nuclear program. Hayman emphasized that Iran views ceasefire talks as a sign of weakness and prefers to maintain a low-intensity conflict to safeguard these gains.

Iran’s red lines include violently suppressing any internal uprisings, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz without American interference, and responding to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah or Lebanon with missile strikes on northern Israel, as directed by Iran’s Supreme Leader. Hayman noted that as long as the conflict remains limited to the Strait of Hormuz and at current intensity levels, Israel is likely to stay out of direct confrontation. However, a broad attack on critical Iranian infrastructure, such as power stations, could escalate the conflict.

The fragile ceasefire in Lebanon continues, but any rogue rocket fire or drone attacks could quickly unravel it. Hayman stressed that Israel’s most critical concern remains Iran’s nuclear program, which is currently advancing with troubling infrastructure work at the "Mount Machoosh" site, lack of International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, and no destruction of the program during Israel’s "Roaring Lion" operation. He warned that Iran deliberately diverts attention to other issues to obscure this existential threat.

Tamir Hayman now leads the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and called for greater focus on Iran’s nuclear developments as the paramount security challenge for Israel.