Reserve Major General Tamir Hayman, the former head of Israeli military intelligence and now chief of the Institute for National Security Studies, said Thursday that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding gives Tehran almost everything it wanted. Hayman, who served in intelligence reserve duty during Operation “Roar of the Lion,” argued that the deal is far from achieving the war’s objectives, adding, “If we had known this is how it would end, it would have been better not to start this war at all.”
Hayman said the agreement ensures the survival of the Iranian regime and provides it with a very generous economic lifeline. In his view, it also gives Iran influence across the Middle East, including joint control of movement through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and responsibility for enforcing the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He said that effectively merges the arenas Israel tried to keep separate.
On the nuclear issue, the main reason Israel and the US went to war with Iran, Hayman said the memorandum contains two key commitments. Enriched material in Iran’s possession will be diluted, though the exact level and quantities are still unclear, and Iran’s nuclear program will be frozen immediately in return for freezing additional US sanctions, even before any final deal is signed, if one is signed at all.
He warned that all of the arrangement’s terms will be overseen by a new monitoring mechanism whose details and authority are still undefined, possibly including the IAEA. Hayman said the deal is meant to prevent Iran from breaking out to a nuclear weapon or returning to the nuclear threshold it had reached before the 12-day war, but stressed that it remains fragile and problematic until the technical details and final signature are published.
