Israel and U.S. emerge from Iran war with only a vague memorandum

A commentary by Iran expert Sima Shine argues that the war launched by Israel and the United States to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program has ended, for now, only in a memorandum of understanding rather than a real breakthrough. Published on Sunday, June 14, 2026, the piece says the question now is who is celebrating and who is nursing losses, on Donald Trump’s birthday.

Shine says the opening stage of the emerging deal focuses on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran has already gained leverage by closing the strait during the war. In return, she writes, Iran expects partial release of frozen funds and a chance to discuss passage arrangements for ships, including possible charges that are not defined as tolls. She says this effectively amounts to ending the war in practice, including in Lebanon.

According to the article, the nuclear issue, which was the declared reason for the war and the main Israeli national security concern, would be discussed only in a second phase, when U.S. pressure tools are weaker. The draft reportedly allows 60 days for talks on the nuclear program, but there is already concern that no agreement will emerge. Shine adds that Iran has also blocked the entrances to tunnels holding enriched material, including by mining them, to prevent a possible U.S. ground operation and to make it harder for IAEA inspectors to remove the material even if a dilution deal is reached.

The article says the current framework does not amount to ending Iran’s nuclear program. It appears to cover only dilution of enriched material, a temporary halt to enrichment that is already impossible after the strikes, and another Iranian pledge not to build a bomb. It leaves unresolved major issues such as the fate of existing centrifuges, production of new ones, and the form of IAEA oversight. Meanwhile, Gulf states have begun talking again with Iran, after suffering damage to oil and gas facilities, airports, and U.S. bases. Iranian security figures describe the emerging arrangement as a ceasefire, not an end to the conflict, and say it will be decided only by victory, which they believe will be Iran’s.