War Against Iran Eases Into a Fragile, Two-Stage Deal

In an opinion piece published Sunday, June 14, 2026, Sima Shine argues that the war launched by Israel and the United States to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program is ending not with a decisive breakthrough, but with a mere memorandum of understanding. She says the current arrangement looks like a political declaration rather than a real nuclear settlement, and warns that it may not deliver a good agreement later.

According to the article, Washington has already accepted Tehran’s initial demand for a two-stage process. The first stage focuses on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Shine says is the most important issue for the global economy. In that phase, Iran is expected to gain partial release of frozen funds and open talks over how ships will pass, possibly paying some undefined fee that is not officially a transit charge. She says that would effectively end the war on the ground, including in Lebanon.

The second stage would cover Iran’s nuclear program, the stated reason for the war and the central issue for Israel’s national security. That stage, she writes, would unfold with reduced American leverage and would likely stay within the parameters Iran was already willing to discuss before the war. The draft reportedly allows 60 days of talks, but Shine says they may produce no agreement and could drag on longer. She also notes that Iran has collapsed and mined the entrances to tunnels holding enriched material, making it harder or perhaps impossible for IAEA inspectors to remove it even if the sides agree on dilution.

Shine says the deal does not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. It only contemplates dilution of enriched material, a temporary halt to enrichment, which she says is anyway no longer possible after the strikes, and Iran’s repeated promise not to build a bomb. She says crucial issues remain untouched, including the fate of existing centrifuges, production of new ones, and the scope of IAEA monitoring. Meanwhile, she says Gulf states have already begun re-engaging Iran after suffering damage to oil and gas facilities, airports, and American bases, and have concluded that Washington could not protect them. Iranian security officials, she adds, describe the emerging deal as a ceasefire, not an end to the conflict, which they say will be decided only by one side’s victory.