Israeli security and intelligence officials expressed shock and disappointment after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. Senior figures in the intelligence community had expected until the last moment that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior Revolutionary Guard officials would sabotage the talks and force President Donald Trump into making a unilateral statement without any formal agreement.
The main issue raised in the negotiations was a possible physical reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the release of frozen funds or permission to export oil. Some in the security establishment believe that if the strait is cleared of mines and reopened, Iran could lose the option of threatening to close it again if the talks fail.
Israeli defense officials are now preparing for what they see as an emerging reality, especially in the third-circle threat arena, while the United States wants the negotiations to continue. Washington has also told Israel that it will not accept attacks or ceasefire violations in Iran. At the same time, Iranian production of 8,000 ballistic missiles has accelerated.
So far, the United States has not reached understandings with Iran on the nuclear project, the enriched uranium, most of which is buried in underground facilities, the ballistic missile program, or continued terror financing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel opposes any arrangement that leaves Iran with nuclear weapons, and the IDF has raised readiness across all units in case the talks collapse and military action becomes necessary.
A senior security source said the broad Israeli strike against the Iranian regime was launched not because of the nuclear project, but because of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to speed up production of 8,000 ballistic missiles with warheads carrying half a ton to a ton of explosive. The source added that if there are no limits on this issue, Israel will need to reconsider political developments.
