Former Israeli Intelligence Chief Highlights Iran’s Strategic Gains and Nuclear Threat

Former head of Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN), Tamir Hayman, outlined Iran’s key strategic achievements that it values more than any ceasefire or negotiations. According to Hayman, Iran has secured four critical gains: regime survival and stability, control over the Strait of Hormuz, enforcement of restrictions on Israel via Hezbollah, and preservation of its nuclear program. These accomplishments are seen by Iran as victories, while ceasefire talks are viewed as capitulation to the West.

Hayman emphasized Iran’s distrust of the United States and former President Trump, leading Tehran to prefer maintaining a low-intensity conflict rather than escalating to full war. Iran’s red lines include violently suppressing any internal uprisings, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz without American interference, and responding forcefully if Israel attacks Hezbollah in Beirut or launches a broad offensive. In such cases, Iran would retaliate against northern Israel, as directed by its Supreme Leader.

The analysis suggests that as long as the conflict remains limited to the Strait of Hormuz and at current low levels, Israel is unlikely to intervene directly. However, a large-scale attack on critical national infrastructure, such as power stations, would broaden the conflict. The fragile ceasefire in Lebanon continues, but remains vulnerable to disruption by isolated rocket fire or drone attacks.

Hayman warned that Israel’s most critical concern, the Iranian nuclear program, is not receiving sufficient attention. He cited troubling reports of infrastructure work at the Al-Mokhous mountain, lack of International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, and failure to dismantle the program during past operations. Given the program’s alarming progress since the 12-Day War, this issue poses the greatest danger. Iran deliberately diverts focus to other matters to obscure this threat.

Tamir Hayman currently leads the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and previously commanded the Northern Command of the IDF.