Experts Warn Iran’s Nuclear Threat Persists Despite Strikes, Shifting Strategic Calculations
Amid renewed efforts to revive talks between the United States and Iran and concerns over Iran’s advancing nuclear program, experts cautioned at the National Security Conference organized by Yedioth Ahronoth and INSS that the threat remains significant despite recent Israeli and U.S. strikes. The panel, moderated by retired Colonel Asaf Orion, emphasized that while Iran’s nuclear facilities were damaged, the program was not eliminated.
Former security official Avner Villan noted that recent operations hit key enrichment sites and some weapons development infrastructure, but Iran still retains about 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, intact centrifuges, and the necessary knowledge to continue its program. He highlighted a new underground facility, “Mount Machoach,” built too deep for bunker-buster bombs to reach, underscoring that no single strike can end Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Sima Shine, former head of research at Mossad and now a senior researcher at INSS, said the discourse inside Iran has shifted, with dominant voices now viewing nuclear weapons as essential. She warned that if Iran maintains its enriched uranium stockpile and operates advanced centrifuges, it could achieve nuclear capability within weeks, though she stressed uncertainty over whether Tehran will choose that path.
Danny Citrinowitz, former head of the Iran branch at Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN) and current INSS researcher, rejected claims that Iran was on the verge of immediate nuclear weapon deployment. He described the recent strike as a strategic opportunity rather than a response to an imminent threat, noting that Iran sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.
Villan disagreed with assessments that Iran was not close to a breakout point before the strikes, arguing that accelerated uranium enrichment, renewed weapons development, and Iranian officials’ statements justified military action. He concluded that while the strikes delayed Iran’s progress, the nuclear challenge continues.
Regarding prospects for a new deal between Iran and world powers, Shine expressed skepticism due to large gaps between the parties and questioned whether an agreement is achievable. She noted that although the U.S. pledges to monitor and act if necessary, it remains unclear if this will stop Iran’s advancement.
In closing, the panelists recommended a multifaceted Israeli approach combining intelligence, covert operations, military pressure, diplomacy, and international agreements to delay Iran’s nuclear program. Shine cautioned against an endless conflict with Iran, warning that Israel cannot afford a perpetual state of war if the Iranian regime endures for decades.
