Lebanon Questions Israel's Negotiation Stance Amidst Political Uncertainty

Lebanon is closely monitoring Israel's political developments, particularly the efforts of Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government, which has placed ongoing negotiations between the two countries on hold. Seven rounds of official talks and a military negotiation in October in Tampa, USA, have not yielded a breakthrough. Lebanese officials are using this period of uncertainty to raise the issue of the UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL's, mandate in southern Lebanon.

A Lebanese ministerial source told the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that Eisenkot's stance on the negotiations is unknown, and that contacts with the US continue without setting a date for a new round. A former Lebanese parliament member suggested that Eisenkot's military background might lead him to adopt tougher positions than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding that leadership changes in Israel do not necessarily indicate greater flexibility in negotiations with Lebanon.

Amidst this uncertainty, Lebanon's focus has shifted to the potential end of UNIFIL's mandate at the end of the year. Lebanese leadership desires the continuation of UNIFIL or a similar UN force to prevent a security vacuum in the south. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that Lebanon prioritizes the continuation of UNIFIL's mission and the renewal of its mandate, while remaining open to an alternative UN-sponsored mechanism. He emphasized that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 must remain the basis for any future international arrangement in the south.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam echoed this sentiment, stating Lebanon needs a continued international presence with a Security Council mandate to maintain stability and support Resolution 1701. He stressed Lebanon's openness to consultations to ensure the continuation of the international role, while asserting Lebanese sovereignty, the need for full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territories, an end to Israeli attacks, and expanded authority for UN forces across Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is facing internal criticism and scrutiny. The Lebanese army recently conducted a raid in Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, seizing a large cache of weapons and ammunition. While the army did not directly link the operation to Hezbollah, the area is known as one of the group's strongholds. Separately, five Hezbollah operatives were reportedly arrested in northern Lebanon on suspicion of reconnaissance activities. These incidents highlight internal Lebanese conflicts regarding state control over weaponry and concerns about potential Hezbollah security operations within Lebanon.

Hezbollah, which is banned from military activity in Lebanon, continues to refuse disarmament and opposes direct negotiations with Israel. Deputy Secretary-General Na'im Qassem stated that priorities include stopping aggression, ensuring Israeli withdrawal, and the return of residents to southern Lebanon. He criticized the framework agreement, stating Israel has not made concessions, and reiterated that the group's resistance must continue to defend the land. Qassem argued that the real problem in Lebanon is the occupation, and that calls for disarming Hezbollah are Israeli-American demands.