Eisenkot Struggles to Form Government as Ultra-Orthodox Hold Key

A week after receiving the mandate to form a government from President Yitzhak Herzog, National Unity Party chairman Gadi Eisenkot is still far from securing the required 61 Knesset seats. While the Likud remains the largest party with 27 mandates, Eisenkot has garnered recommendations from 67 MKs, compared to 46 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The seven members of United Torah Judaism have withheld their recommendation, positioning them as potential kingmakers for the next government. Eisenkot has emphasized the necessity of forming a national unity government, but the gap between his supporters and the needed majority remains significant.

The "Change Bloc," comprising National Unity, Telem, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu, totals only 48 mandates. The additional 19 recommendations for Eisenkot come from Ra'am and the Joint List, a prospect that has sparked internal debate within the bloc. President Herzog urged Eisenkot to form a government that serves all citizens, while Eisenkot warned of the need for "creative and unusual political moves" and invited any faction agreeing to his four principles, including mandatory service for all and recognizing Hamas as a terror organization, to join a "national emergency government."

A primary obstacle lies within the Change Bloc itself. Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman has stated he will oppose a minority government reliant on Arab parties, suggesting instead a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Lieberman, who has recently softened his stance on the draft law, is pushing for a coalition with the Haredi parties. Eisenkot's coalition negotiation team includes Ronen Manelis, Yoav Horowitz, and Yoram Turbovich.

Amid coalition talks, the Change Bloc secured key positions in the 26th Knesset, with Matan Kahana slated to be the bloc's candidate for Knesset Speaker, Lieberman to head the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and Liran Avivshar Ben Horin to chair the Finance Committee. However, tensions escalated between Eisenkot and Netanyahu. Netanyahu called for a national unity government and criticized the possibility of a "narrow government including terror supporters." Eisenkot sharply retorted, calling Netanyahu's speech "delusional, divisive, hateful, and shameful," leading to the cancellation of a planned negotiation meeting with Likud.

The security dispute over Iran further intensified the conflict. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu against making sensitive security decisions, citing reports of potential renewed conflict with Iran. The Prime Minister's office responded by urging Eisenkot to join a government fighting terror instead of attempting to form one with terror supporters. Following a two-hour security briefing attended by the Prime Minister's military secretary, a joint statement was issued, but disagreements persisted, with Eisenkot stating the situation requires "close supervision."

Behind the scenes, Eisenkot has prioritized talks with the ultra-Orthodox parties, aligning with Lieberman's strategy. The preferred scenario involves United Torah Judaism joining a minority government of 55 MKs, with the possibility of expanding the coalition later with Shas or defectors from Likud. United Torah Judaism has confirmed initial contacts and presented demands regarding the draft law, education budgets, and religion-state issues, reportedly seeking a one-year freeze on the draft and arrests for yeshiva students. Shas, meanwhile, maintains its loyalty to Netanyahu, who is reportedly attempting to dissuade Haredi parties from joining Eisenkot's government. The question of Ra'am's participation remains unresolved, despite calls from Democrats chairman Yair Golan to include them.

Despite the sharp exchanges, negotiation teams from National Unity and Likud are expected to resume talks next week. A significant gap remains, as Eisenkot is committed to not serving under Netanyahu, while Netanyahu insists on leading any unity government. Eisenkot expressed optimism about progress in discussions, stating "there is no other alternative." The mandate expires on December 6, with a possible 14-day extension. While the Change Bloc agreed on Knesset positions in the first week, forming a coalition remains a distant goal, with President Herzog urging lawmakers to avoid new elections.