Israel May Need Solo Iran Operation Amid Strategic Uncertainty

Israel's defense establishment is not currently identifying an immediate threat or preparations for an attack from Iran, despite a concerning report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressing "growing concern" over a secret nuclear facility near Isfahan. Nevertheless, the IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) is updating its target bank, and the Air Force is learning from past combat rounds, preparing for both defense and offense. The US is reinforcing its defense and refueling capabilities in the region but has not yet redeployed its bomber fleet that operated over Iran in March. The IDF is maintaining a state of alert for potential renewed conflict but is proceeding cautiously due to Israel's complex political situation. The Air Force is enhancing its operational capabilities and drawing lessons from the "Shag of the Lion" exercise, recognizing that further conflict will require creative solutions to maintain air superiority. US naval forces in the region remain similar to March, with approximately 17 warships, including two aircraft carriers and 13 destroyers. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to arrive, potentially replacing the USS George Washington rather than augmenting the force. Around 200 US fighter jets and 200 aerial refueling aircraft are deployed in the Middle East, though US bombers are not yet stationed at identified regional bases. Since mid-October, at least 16 US transport aircraft have landed at Ovda base. The US has also supplied Israel with a Patriot missile defense system, and additional air defense systems have been deployed in the area. Maritime cooperation between Israel and Greece is also strengthening. Security officials emphasize that in any conflict scenario, political leaders must define the objective of further fighting. Iran reportedly still possesses approximately 450 kg of highly enriched uranium, whose location is known to Western intelligence. During the "Shag of the Lion" operation, nuclear targets were largely avoided, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of overthrowing the Iranian regime, an outcome unlikely from an air operation alone. Amid preparations for various scenarios, the IDF is seeking strategic and budgetary certainty to enable long-term decision-making across all open fronts. The IAEA report focuses on an enrichment facility in Isfahan that Iran reported last year but has not allowed inspection of. The agency is unaware of the facility's exact location, its oversight status, or if it contains nuclear material, and Iran has not permitted access to its design plans. The report does not state that enrichment is occurring at the facility. Iran claims it will not allow any enriched material to leave the country, but Israel is primarily concerned about the lack of oversight on the large quantities of enriched material. Iranian nuclear expert Avner Wylan warned that the report raises disturbing questions about the scope of Iran's program and Israel's and the US's ability to monitor its activities post-strikes. Meanwhile, Iran's Tasnim agency reported that Iran has the technical capability to extend missile ranges beyond 2,000 km, potentially reaching 3,000-4,000 km with warhead modifications, which could target US bases and allies in Europe. The agency also raised the possibility of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles. This follows a statement by Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohibi that Iran's missile range limitations have been removed, and a warning from Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei that any threat from Israel or the US will be met with a response "without geographical limitations." Israel has provided Washington with intelligence on Iranian drone attack intentions against senior US officials, including President Donald Trump. Mossad Chief Roman Gofman recently traveled to the US, reportedly to persuade Washington to resume strikes. Prime Minister Netanyahu will convene the political-military cabinet on Sunday evening, the first such meeting during a transitional government. Netanyahu is pushing for a military operation in Iran but faces opposition from Chief of Staff Ayal Zamir regarding timing and lack of US backing. Netanyahu also cited the "existential threat" from Iran in his call for an unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, though he allegedly concealed Gofman's trip from him. Israel desires a joint operation with the US, but President Trump currently appears disinclined, focusing on an upcoming summit in China with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. However, with time before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027, sources suggest Israel may need to undertake a "solo" operation in Iran.