Erdogan's Son's Secret Lebanon Visit Raises Regional Influence Concerns

Bilal Erdoğan, son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and considered a potential successor, made a secret visit to Lebanon where he met with senior Lebanese leadership. While described by Lebanese officials as having a social and economic character, aimed at conveying support and exploring cooperation, Lebanese media, particularly the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper, presented a more complex picture. These reports suggest the visit is part of a broader Turkish effort to expand its political, religious, and social influence in Lebanon amidst shifting regional power dynamics.

According to a Lebanese source involved in the discussions, Bilal Erdoğan issued warnings about Israel during his meetings, emphasizing the threat it poses to Lebanon and Syria and highlighting Turkey's role in connecting the two nations. However, individuals close to Erdoğan denied any political agenda, stating the visit was one of many he undertakes globally for humanitarian and traditional sports promotion, independent of any official state mission. Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri also downplayed the political interpretations of the visit.

Economic discussions reportedly included a potential railway project connecting Saudi Arabia to Turkey via Syria and Lebanon, a corridor that could bolster Ankara's economic standing and link Middle Eastern markets. This initiative is seen in the context of competition with other regional trade routes, including one planned through Israel. The visit also aligns with improving Turkey-Saudi relations, with Ankara potentially seeking to enhance its presence among Lebanon's Sunni population without antagonizing Riyadh.

Al-Akhbar, however, offered a different assessment, suggesting Saudi Arabia had reservations about some of Erdoğan's meetings but did not actively prevent his visit. The visit occurs as multiple countries, including the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, are actively pursuing influence in Lebanon through political and economic means. Turkey's approach appears to combine economic engagement, cultural ties, and political involvement, aiming to strengthen Lebanese state institutions while countering what it perceives as Israeli regional activity.

Erdoğan's meeting with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a proponent of Syrian unity, is also noteworthy, aligning with Turkish interests. Lebanese media interpreted the visit as an attempt by Turkey to prevent further deterioration of Lebanon-Syria relations and expand its regional influence, particularly given tensions with Israel and concerns about escalating military activity in southern Syria. Despite official statements emphasizing its non-political nature, the high-level reception Bilal Erdoğan received underscores the significance attributed to his visit.