Lieberman Pivots to Ultra-Orthodox, Shunning Arab Parties for Government

Seven years after his ultimatum over the ultra-Orthodox draft law led to repeated elections, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, now holds a key position in forming a new government. This time, however, Lieberman is signaling a shift, moving away from his previous opposition to the ultra-Orthodox parties and instead preparing for potential compromise with them. This strategic change comes as he firmly rejects reliance on Arab parties, even if it means diverging from the preferences of his own voter base. Political analysts suggest Lieberman's stance could be the crucial factor in resolving the governmental deadlock for the "bloc of change."

A senior political source recalled Lieberman's 2019 stance, when he refused to grant Benjamin Netanyahu the votes needed to form a right-wing government, citing his insistence on an unchanged draft law demanded by the ultra-Orthodox. This led to new elections. Today, the same source questions if history is repeating, with Arab parties now playing the role the ultra-Orthodox did in blocking a government. Lieberman, while willing to negotiate with the ultra-Orthodox, is adamant about not depending on Arab parties for government formation.

Lieberman has emerged as a pivotal figure following the recent election results, with his decisions significantly influencing whether the "bloc of change" can establish a government or if Israel faces another election. His stated priorities include maximizing mandates for his bloc and securing the premiership, positioning Yisrael Beiteinu as a secular, Zionist, right-wing alternative to Netanyahu. He recently met with journalists to outline his strategy, including a willingness to compromise on the ultra-Orthodox issue, anticipating potential backlash.

Despite the complexities and his reputation as an uncompromising politician, Lieberman is actively seeking a path to government formation. He stated his goals are to end Netanyahu's era, prevent new elections, and avoid a minority government reliant on Arab parties. He clarified that he is not seeking the premiership himself, but rather supporting Gadi Eisenkot. His faction head, Oded Forer, believes Lieberman has presented a viable solution by proposing a compromise with the ultra-Orthodox, which he deems the "least bad" option compared to relying on Arab parties or facing new elections. Forer emphasized that Lieberman's aim is a stable government, not an "illusion" built on shaky foundations.

However, recent polling indicates a divergence between Lieberman's current strategy and his voters' preferences, with a majority favoring support from the Ra'am party over a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is reportedly pushing for a government of national unity, a stark contrast to his previous campaign rhetoric.