Israeli Political Bloc Eyes Pragmatic Alliance With Ultra-Orthodox Parties
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
A potential political alliance is emerging between Israel's "Change Bloc" and ultra-Orthodox parties, aiming to form the next government amidst the conscription law crisis. The ultra-Orthodox are expected to prioritize state budget approval and a temporary freeze on draft dodger arrests over immediate conscription law passage. For the Change Bloc, this strategy achieves the removal of Benjamin Netanyahu and avoids reliance on Arab parties, while positioning them favorably for future elections regardless of the conscription law's ultimate fate.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- A pragmatic alliance is forming between Israel's "Change Bloc" and ultra-Orthodox parties to form a new government.
- Ultra-Orthodox parties prioritize state budget approval and a freeze on draft dodger arrests over immediate conscription law.
- The Change Bloc aims to remove Benjamin Netanyahu from power and avoid reliance on Arab parties.
- The alliance offers the Change Bloc leverage for future elections, regardless of the conscription law's outcome.
- A new conscription law is expected within a year, aiming to increase ultra-Orthodox enlistment targets.
A pragmatic political alliance is reportedly forming between Israel's "Change Bloc" and the ultra-Orthodox parties, driven by the complex political deadlock and the conscription law crisis. This seemingly paradoxical partnership is seen as politically logical, with both sides aiming to facilitate the formation of the next government.
The ultra-Orthodox parties, experienced in political negotiations, understand that a final conscription law will not pass before a new government is established. Instead, they are expected to accept firm political assurances that the future government will advance legislation addressing the status of yeshiva students. The immediate priority for them is the state budget, which is crucial for funding their educational institutions and other organizations. Without an approved budget, coalition funds are unavailable, jeopardizing the survival of these vital sectors.
Concurrently, the new government would enact a temporary order to freeze the arrest of draft dodgers, providing immediate relief to the ultra-Orthodox public while a new conscription law is drafted over approximately one year. This new law would aim to be more favorable to the ultra-Orthodox than previous proposals but would likely include provisions to increase conscription targets within their community.
For the Change Bloc, this arrangement offers a "win-win" scenario. Primarily, it achieves their main objective: removing Benjamin Netanyahu from power. This success would be significant even if they don't fully realize all their goals regarding religion and state. Secondly, partnering with the ultra-Orthodox avoids the controversial need to form a minority government reliant on Arab parties.
The strategic brilliance for the Change Bloc lies in the potential scenario a year from now, when the temporary order expires and the conscription law comes to a vote. If the law passes with mutual agreement, it's a historic achievement for the Change Bloc, increasing ultra-Orthodox enlistment. If the law fails because it's deemed too lenient towards the ultra-Orthodox by the Change Bloc, leading to new elections, the bloc would enter the next election with a powerful mandate. They could campaign on having removed Netanyahu, forming a "Zionist government" without Arab support, and refusing to yield to "ultra-Orthodox blackmail." In this election scenario, the ultra-Orthodox would face renewed budget uncertainties and the threat of draft dodger arrests without legal resolution, while the Change Bloc would be in a superior political position.
