Trump May Avoid Iran Strikes If No New Provocations Occur, Sources Say

President Donald Trump has informed his top advisors that he might refrain from attacking Iran if Tehran or its allied Houthis in Yemen do not engage in new provocations against the United States, according to three sources familiar with the matter. Trump has wavered between threatening escalation and de-escalation, with current and former officials suggesting he has not finalized his strategy for ending the unpopular war he initiated in February with Israel. However, in meetings with national security advisors and following intelligence briefings, Trump indicated he was considering holding back from strikes, the sources stated, requesting anonymity. He has expressed sympathy for regional allies who have urged him not to resume a full-scale conflict. Trump told sports broadcaster Steven A. Smith on Thursday that while he "can end it immediately," the U.S. is proceeding in a "longer, more civilized" way at the request of nations it seeks to protect. The war has contributed to rising global fuel prices and proved unpopular with American voters, who helped Democrats gain control of Congress in the midterm elections earlier in November. A Reuters/Ipsos poll before the November 3 election found 55 percent of Americans believed the war was not worth the cost, with Vice President J.D. Vance citing it as a reason for Republican losses. These private remarks followed public statements downplaying the likelihood of a large-scale war resumption. A White House official stated that as Commander-in-Chief, President Trump is the sole decision-maker and will always ensure America's interests are protected, adding that the U.S. is in a strong position due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's collapsing economy. The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to requests for comment.

In recent weeks, Trump sought the opinions of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan via phone calls, both of whom urged him not to resume attacks on Iran, according to a senior U.S. official and another person briefed on the matter. Trump made no specific commitments. Two other sources indicated that Trump told Mohammed bin Salman on October 31 that he planned an attack after the elections, but the Crown Prince persuaded him to reconsider, arguing that economic sanctions were effective. The Saudi Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. According to the Turkish presidency, Trump spoke with Erdoğan three times since October 28, with a November 7 call emphasizing the need to de-escalate tensions. U.S. intelligence assessments conclude that American naval blockades and economic sanctions are damaging Iran's economy and will continue to pressure Tehran, two U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence stated. Reuters previously reported that the U.S. military is also working to prevent the entry of sanctioned weapons and materials into Iran by land or across the Caspian Sea.

Meanwhile, the military is prepared for escalation if necessary, three sources familiar with U.S. planning said. A third aircraft carrier is expected to head to the Middle East soon to replace one of two currently in the region, though all three could remain if needed. One source privy to Trump's calls with the Saudi and Turkish leaders suggested the president might consider bombing Iran's underground nuclear facilities, though the effectiveness of further strikes is unclear. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate new strikes would not significantly alter Iran's negotiation demands, according to two U.S. officials. Trump was briefed on U.S. weapons stockpiles, some of which have fallen to concerning levels, two sources familiar with the intelligence briefings reported. Reuters had previously reported in August that the U.S. had used "almost all" of its long-range precision munitions and had not replenished them, according to another source. The White House official asserted that the U.S. military possesses sufficient materiel and munitions to meet all strategic objectives. Israeli officials continue to press the U.S. administration for another military campaign, a U.S. official said. Trump recently indicated the U.S. had achieved all it could through negotiations but did not specify if strikes would resume. On Thursday, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. "doesn't need a deal with Iran... We have their money. Hundreds of billions of dollars, and we have their strait."