Trump Signals Shift on Iran, Considering Gulf States as Negotiators

U.S. President Donald Trump is sending mixed signals regarding Iran, reportedly considering a plan to delegate negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz to Persian Gulf nations. An anonymous source familiar with the matter indicated Trump believes oil transport volumes through the strait are nearing pre-conflict levels, bolstering his confidence in achieving military objectives. However, the situation on the ground remains volatile. The UN reported October saw the highest number of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since February, with shipping in the area still fraught with significant danger. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) frequently claims to have struck oil tankers, releasing footage of fires at sea.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President next Thursday, November 19, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. The White House confirmed the leaders will discuss global nuclear disarmament, with Trump also intending to raise the issue of Iran. The war in Ukraine is not expected to be on the agenda.

Earlier in the week, following a meeting with the Prime Minister of Qatar, Trump suggested that large-scale strikes against Iran might no longer be necessary, stating the war was "effectively over" from a military standpoint. This led to an impression among Middle East diplomats that Qatari mediation efforts were progressing. However, the situation shifted dramatically on Thursday, November 12, when Trump announced via social media that the U.S. no longer needed a deal with Iran. He also instructed Vice President J.D. Vance, who had been leading negotiations with Iran, to focus entirely on domestic U.S. political issues. This statement followed a Wall Street Journal report that Vance was considering a personal meeting with Iranian representatives, though sources suggest Trump felt the Iranians were negotiating in bad faith.

Middle East diplomats expressed confusion over Trump's contradictory statements, which have left the negotiation process in a state of uncertainty. One diplomat questioned Vance's removal from the talks, while another noted that negotiations are effectively on hold pending clarification of U.S. intentions. Even mediators engaging with Iran are reportedly unsure if Trump has abandoned diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that economic pressure on Iran is so intense that further military action is unnecessary.

Israeli military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai warned of severe consequences from a potentially unfavorable U.S.-Iran deal. He assessed that such an agreement could grant Iran economic and political advantages, enabling it to rebuild and expand its destructive capabilities and those of its regional allies. Ben-Yishai also fears Trump might declare victory, withdraw significant U.S. forces currently deployed for joint operations with the IDF, and that this withdrawal would be a major psychological blow to Washington and Jerusalem, diminishing deterrence. He believes Iran could become a dominant regional power, forcing Arab Gulf states to seek good relations, leaving Israel in a precarious position, potentially facing Iran alone with limited options for independent military action, or even being explicitly forbidden by Trump from resuming hostilities to avoid re-engaging the U.S.

Despite his statements about avoiding further conflict, Trump did not rule out renewed military action. In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump emphasized that U.S. forces are on high alert and monitoring activities, stating he would not hesitate to order military action if the situation is not resolved. Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey criticized Trump's policy, accusing him of "setting fire to foreign policy" and then attempting to withdraw, leaving others to deal with the consequences.