Eisenkot Navigates Complex Coalition Talks Amidst Netanyahu's Opposition

Gadi Eisenkot, tasked by the Israeli president with forming a government, faces significant hurdles in his first week of negotiations. Despite consultations and initial agreements, he lacks sufficient support for a stable coalition. A key scenario involves attracting the ultra-Orthodox parties, traditionally allied with Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot's camp states the past week focused on preliminary talks and exploring coalition options, with behind-the-scenes developments potentially shifting the Knesset's balance of power.

Eisenkot is pursuing coalition partners while also aiming to control key parliamentary structures, seeking to staff important committees and leadership positions with his bloc's representatives. Official negotiations are led by Ronen Manelis, Yoav Horowitz, and Yoram Turbovitz, meeting with party representatives, while Eisenkot engages directly with political leaders. However, controlling committees does not resolve the core issue of insufficient votes for a coalition.

The ultra-Orthodox parties' stance is crucial for a potential change in power. Eisenkot's circle is considering bringing in "United Torah Judaism" and later the Shas party. One plan involves a minority government supported by 55 MKs, later expanding with Shas or Likud members. This carries risks, as the ultra-Orthodox parties' shift could significantly alter the balance of power. Progress has reportedly been made with the Haredim, but participants fear premature disclosure of concessions could alienate their voters and cause political damage.

Internal disagreements within Eisenkot's "Bloc of Change" present another obstacle. Avigdor Lieberman strongly opposes a minority government, limiting Eisenkot's options. An initial plan to form a government with 48 MKs to oust Netanyahu is now uncertain due to Lieberman's resistance. Further complications arise from potential cooperation with the Arab party Ra'am, which Yair Golan supports but Lieberman and others oppose. Eisenkot has avoided public statements on specific terms with Arab parties but has spoken against generalizing negative views of Arab citizens, emphasizing democratic principles.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Netanyahu on national security led to a joint statement, sparking speculation about a unity government, though coalition matters were reportedly not discussed. The meeting included the Prime Minister's military secretary and focused on security. However, political cooperation between the rivals is not entirely ruled out. Eisenkot has ordered renewed contact with Likud representatives next week, though Lieberman and Golan have stated they will not join a unity government with Netanyahu. A coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties remains Eisenkot's preference, but if those talks fail, an agreement with Likud might be reconsidered.

Eisenkot has approximately three weeks to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. He intends to continue negotiations with all parties accepting his principles, aiming first for an emergency government and then broader parliamentary support. The "Bloc of Change" fears delays could hinder agreements and empower Netanyahu. Yair Lapid has warned allies about the consequences of failed negotiations, calling it national irresponsibility while expressing confidence in their bloc's success.