Iran War Likely Postponed, Not Over, Israel Fears US Shift
Translated & summarized from Ynet by baba
Israeli and US intelligence see no immediate existential nuclear threat from Iran, but Iran is developing ballistic missiles and hardening facilities. Israel fears a US policy shift under President Trump towards de-escalation, potentially leaving Israel to act alone against Iran. Concerns exist about a potential US-Iran deal that could ease sanctions and blockades, while Iran might preemptively attack to break its isolation. The situation remains tense, with the possibility of conflict being postponed rather than resolved.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli and US intelligence find no current existential nuclear threat from Iran, but note missile development.
- Israel fears President Trump may seek de-escalation with Iran, potentially leaving Israel to act alone.
- Iranian officials are reportedly worried about a US naval blockade, leading to increased threats.
- There is concern over a potential US-Iran deal that could ease sanctions and blockades.
- Iran may consider preemptive attacks on the US and allies to break economic and diplomatic isolation.
- Israel's military leadership is reportedly divided on potential provocations against Iran.
Despite recent updates, Israeli and US intelligence agencies have found no information indicating Iran possesses an existential threat or is actively developing nuclear weapons. However, Iran has reportedly resumed ballistic missile development at a rate of dozens per month and is working to repair and harden nuclear and missile facilities damaged in past Israeli operations. Iranian officials are reportedly concerned about an effective US naval blockade, leading to escalated threats disseminated through media.
Concerns are mounting in Israel regarding potential US policy shifts under President Trump, specifically a desire to de-escalate the Iran situation without further military confrontation. This perceived US withdrawal is seen as a genuine and justified fear in Israel, given its reliance on close US cooperation for operations against Iran, such as refueling and fighter jet support that were crucial in past strikes. While Israel can conduct smaller, targeted operations independently, large-scale disruption of Iran's military-industrial complex has historically required US assistance.
Adding to the anxiety, there are fears that Trump might restrict Israel's ability to act independently against Iran. The article suggests that Iran might preemptively attack the US and its allies to break the economic blockade and diplomatic stalemate, a move that could escalate regional tensions. The arrival of a third US aircraft carrier, the USS Roosevelt, to the region with CENTCOM forces is expected soon, enhancing readiness.
There is apprehension that the US might reach an agreement with Iran, potentially involving the lifting of the naval blockade, sanctions relief, and unfreezing Iranian assets, in exchange for concessions on nuclear inspections and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Such a deal, if perceived as a capitulation, could embolden Iran, undermine Israeli deterrence, and establish it as a regional hegemon. The article notes that past attempts at similar agreements have failed due to Iranian provocations.
Internal Israeli discussions reportedly involve disagreements between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz on one side, and Chief of Staff Zamir on the other, regarding potential provocations against Iran. While Netanyahu and his allies are accused by some of seeking actions that could incite an Iranian response during a period of high US and Israeli readiness, Zamir is described as cautious and determined to allow democratic processes to proceed without security disruptions. It is anticipated that Israel will likely refrain from an independent offensive initiative against Iran in the near future, focusing instead on influencing the Trump administration to maintain pressure and seek a mutually acceptable agreement.
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