Israel's Political Landscape: A Week of Stalemate and Shifting Alliances

The week following the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset highlighted the extreme complexity of coalition formation in Israel. Two symbolic incidents underscored the political deadlock: Arab lawmakers walked out during the national anthem, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a fiery speech attacking Arab parties and calling for a government of national unity. The political chaos intensified as Gadi Eisenkot, tasked by the president with forming a government, faced significant hurdles. Despite his initial readiness to form a minority government, opposition from Avigdor Lieberman, internal dissent within Eisenkot's own party, and doubts about viability made this option increasingly unrealistic. The departure of Arab MKs further complicated the atmosphere surrounding a minority government. Negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox parties are ongoing, though their progress is uncertain. A government of national unity remains a possibility, despite the cancellation of a planned meeting between Netanyahu and Eisenkot following Netanyahu's harsh speech.

Netanyahu finds himself in an uncharacteristic position of limited influence, with Lieberman and Eisenkot fracturing his bloc of supporters. His attempts to secure the necessary 61 mandates are hampered by damaged relationships and an inability to bridge the gap. Meanwhile, Lieberman, reportedly shocked by his party's election results, blames Eisenkot and sees his own ambitions for prime minister threatened. He has agreed to Eisenkot's demand for the Knesset Speaker position and a temporary role in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, but rejects cooperation with Netanyahu and Arab parties, urging Eisenkot to proceed cautiously. Lieberman is reportedly negotiating with the ultra-Orthodox parties, raising questions about whether these talks are for the bloc's benefit or his own.

Naftali Bennett has remained largely silent on his coalition preferences, leaving his position ambiguous. His proposed "Employee Law" has not eased tensions with the ultra-Orthodox. The significant gap between the ultra-Orthodox and the "change bloc" means the law's fate depends on coalition agreements. Bennett's stance is critical, especially given his past rhetoric against ultra-Orthodox autonomy. He is keeping his options open, with political circles believing he will align with the coalition formed by Eisenkot and/or Lieberman. A past clash between Bennett and Netanyahu has not entirely closed the door on their potential alliance.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are experiencing a favorable moment, with coalition demands being published daily. However, internal divisions within United Torah Judaism, potentially splitting into two or three factions, pose a significant obstacle. While Yaakov Asher negotiates, his predecessor Moshe Gafni reportedly seeks to disrupt these talks. Shas's position is also uncertain, with Arie Deri still wielding influence behind the scenes. Shas voters, largely right-leaning, may be hesitant to join a coalition with secular parties like Yesh Atid, potentially fracturing the party. However, if United Torah Judaism joins, Shas may find it difficult to remain outside.

Netanyahu's aggressive speech at the Knesset swearing-in ceremony signaled his anxiety about Eisenkot forming a government. He has established a working group to prevent the opposing side from forming a coalition, focusing pressure on the ultra-Orthodox by warning they will be exploited. The ultra-Orthodox, in turn, point to a lack of achievements during Netanyahu's previous term. Netanyahu met with Eisenkot, ostensibly to discuss security matters and to appease the president, but also to exert pressure. While a joint statement promised continued security dialogue, a national unity government is not imminent. Eisenkot is expected to exhaust all other options before negotiating with Netanyahu.

Gadi Eisenkot is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy, with coalition negotiations running parallel to parliamentary maneuvers. He is openly supported by Arab parties in his Knesset initiatives. Key appointments, such as the organizational committee head and the Knesset Speaker, have been secured for his party, with Lieberman compensated with a temporary committee chairmanship. While these parliamentary steps signal a change of power, their ultimate value depends on the formation of a stable government.