US Iran Policy Shifts to "Choking" Amidst Shifting Political Winds

President Donald Trump declared Iran "militaryly finished" and stated the U.S. is maintaining the status quo, following meetings with Qatar's Prime Minister. This comes as Secretary of State Mike Rubio reported no progress in talks with Tehran, deeming Iran's demands "unacceptable." Iran, meanwhile, denied that any negotiations were taking place, with Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until Washington met Iran's seven conditions, including ending hostilities and releasing frozen funds.

According to Axios, Rubio informed G7 foreign ministers that Trump has opted for a third option beyond war or a deal: "choking" the Iranian regime. This strategy involves continuing the naval blockade of Iranian ports and launching a new operation, "Iron Gate," to disrupt overland arms and technology transfers. While Gulf states reportedly prefer this approach over further attacks, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott are pushing for economic pressure to work.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly unhappy with this policy, allegedly calling Trump daily to urge renewed strikes. However, other sources suggest Jerusalem is not exerting significant pressure, and one account describes a dramatic "shouting match" between the two leaders. Trump, however, has labeled further strikes "highly unlikely."

The shift in tone is attributed to Trump's acknowledgment that the war was a factor in the Republican party's midterm election losses. Vice President J.D. Vance further argued that the war was the reason for the defeat, listing four demands of voters that included ending the war and re-evaluating relations with Israel. This stance has ignited internal debate within the Republican party, with the Wall Street Journal criticizing Vance for signaling weakness to Iran, while The Federalist defended him, arguing that hawks are seeking scapegoats.

Analysts suggest the war's political cost stemmed from its management, including a flawed memorandum of understanding, unfulfilled victory declarations, and rising fuel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, in addition to Trump's tariffs. With Democrats set to control Congress in January, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to "end the war." While a presidential veto can block war powers, control over the budget could prove problematic.

Senator Mike Rubio, serving as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, is central to the current policy. Despite reports of his potential resignation, which the State Department denied, Rubio's position is critical. If he remains, he could bear the brunt of an unpopular war, but if he leaves, he would vacate a key post amidst a push for policy change. The U.S. "choking" policy is seen as potentially effective if sustained, but its success depends on Congressional funding, Rubio's tenure, and the outcome of the 2028 Republican primaries. The concern is a "frozen war" scenario where Iran recovers while U.S. attention wanes, leaving Israel to face the problem with diminished American political will.