Houthis Expand Influence to Africa, Threatening Israel and Red Sea Shipping

The Houthi movement in Yemen has transformed from a regional threat into a significant strategic force in the Middle East, particularly following the "Swords of Iron" war and subsequent regional shifts. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has positioned himself as a dominant figure in the "Axis of Resistance," especially after major blows to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. The Houthis' continued attacks against Israel during the Gaza conflict, alongside strikes on American and Saudi targets, have boosted their standing within the "Axis of Resistance" and the Muslim world, according to the Amit Institute for Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Research. However, al-Houthi's image has not yet achieved the prominence of figures like Khamenei and Nasrallah among supporters of the "Axis of Resistance," suggesting he has not fully solidified his leadership status.

The Houthis are increasingly extending their operations into Africa, posing a potential risk to Israeli interests, particularly in Somaliland, which has recently strengthened ties with Israel. If conflict with Israel resumes, Houthi operational cells in countries like Sudan could intensify threats to Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, serve as launchpads for attacks into Israel, and facilitate the transfer of advanced weapons to areas near Israel, such as the Gaza Strip.

The Horn of Africa, with a focus on Somalia, is a primary area of Houthi and Iranian strategic interest. International reports indicate the Houthis have established extensive smuggling routes from Iran via Somalia's coast. This has led to a dangerous operational alliance between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia. The Houthis reportedly supply Al-Shabaab with advanced weaponry and provide tactical training, including on operating and manufacturing drones, to hundreds of its operatives. In return, Al-Shabaab engages in piracy along Somalia's coast, disrupts maritime traffic in the Arabian Sea, and provides the Houthis with valuable intelligence on vessel movements.

A critical flashpoint involves Israel's December 2025 recognition of Somaliland's independence. This strategic move, reportedly including plans for an Israeli intelligence-gathering military base in the region, has angered Sana'a. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared it an "aggression against Yemen and the Red Sea," with Houthi officials stating any Israeli presence would be a legitimate and immediate military target. This threat is amplified by Somaliland's proximity to Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, a short distance for Houthi weaponry that has already demonstrated long-range capabilities.

The Houthi-Iranian presence is also expanding along the Red Sea's African coast. In Sudan, the Houthis are involved in Iran's efforts to aid the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the civil war, acting as a conduit for arms transfers and providing drone operation expertise. In Djibouti and Eritrea, Houthis use ports for smuggling Iranian electronic and chemical components for advanced weapons development. Secret cells operate in Eritrea and Ethiopia, recruiting local individuals for smuggling to Yemen. This coordinated strategy by Iran and the Houthis aims to tighten control over Red Sea shipping lanes, deter Saudi Arabia, and pose a direct threat to Israeli and Western interests in the region.