Netanyahu May Escalate Military Action Amid Coalition Talks, Analyst Warns

Political science lecturer and researcher Dr. Salim Breik stated that Gadi Eisenkot's message to Benjamin Netanyahu addresses two main issues: the security file and potential escalation with Iran, and Netanyahu's alleged attempts to use military operations and security tensions to disrupt the political process and prevent a government transition. Breik explained on Radio Al-Shams that the US is seeking an agreement with Iran through direct contacts, which concerns Israel. He noted that Netanyahu has been pushing for military action against Iran, while Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir opposes this, deeming it irresponsible and potentially leading to a full-scale war. Breik recalled Netanyahu's previous attempts to use escalation with Iran and West Bank tensions to influence elections, which failed, and warned that current efforts might aim to prevent the handover of government to Eisenkot.

Regarding the powers of a transitional government, Breik clarified that it must continue its duties but exercise caution, avoiding large-scale military operations, especially with a new government reflecting different political directions being formed. He questioned the delay in appointing Avigdor Lieberman to head the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, citing Lieberman's extensive security and political experience as crucial for overseeing government decisions. Breik criticized the appointment of Boaz Bismuth to the committee leadership, deeming it politically motivated rather than based on expertise, and emphasized the committee's oversight role in protecting citizens.

On the US stance, Breik asserted that the Trump administration does not want to be drawn into a new war with Iran, as any Israeli military action could involve the US in a broader confrontation with regional and global repercussions. He also pointed to growing American public criticism of Israeli policies, which some believe have led the US into costly conflicts, making it harder for the administration to ignore escalation risks. Breik believes Netanyahu faces challenges in imposing his will on the military, with Chief of Staff Zamir prioritizing security risks and the security establishment potentially preventing decisions lacking clear defensive necessity.

Concerning coalition negotiations, Breik suggested Avigdor Lieberman might prolong talks to pressure Eisenkot. He noted that negotiations with Haredi parties may not lead to a final agreement, as they could leverage talks with the center-left for greater gains. Naftali Bennett's low profile suggests dissatisfaction with the current negotiation path. Breik anticipates the final options will be a minority government, possibly with support from the United Arab List, or new elections in the spring. He concluded that even a short-lived minority government could be significant for passing laws and altering the political landscape, highlighting deep-seated societal crises stemming from the current government's failures in education, transportation, and international standing.