Haredi Analyst: Low Chance of Government with Eisenkot, But Gains Already Made

Haredi journalist and commentator Shlomo Kok believes the chances of Haredi parties joining a government led by Gadi Eisenkot are low due to deep ideological gaps, though he notes that the very engagement has already yielded political and reputational benefits for the Haredi public. Kok, editor of the weekly "Bakehila," revealed in an interview with Channel 7 that an offer has been made to United Torah Judaism to freeze arrests of draft dodgers for one year, during which a new conscription plan would be formulated. He explained that even maximum concessions from the opposition bloc might not meet the minimum demands of the Haredi leadership, citing three core conditions set by United Torah Judaism chairman Yaakov Asher: canceling sanctions and arrests against yeshiva students, preserving the autonomy and funding of Haredi education, and maintaining the status quo on religion and state issues.

Kok criticized the Netanyahu bloc for attacking Haredi parties for exploring cooperation with Eisenkot's bloc, contrasting it with the opposition's softening tone towards the Haredi community, evidenced by the near disappearance of the term "draft evasion" from their discourse. He drew parallels to Netanyahu's 2013 coalition with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, leaving Haredi parties out, and suggested Netanyahu might again prioritize forming a broad government without them. Kok argued that the Haredi parties' alliance with the right-wing bloc effectively ended months ago when Rabbi Dov Lando declared there was no longer a binding right-wing bloc, and Yitzhak Goldknopf of Gur had distanced himself earlier.

Kok highlighted the complex dilemma facing the opposition leaders, who promised not to sit with Netanyahu and to oppose cooperation with Haredim. He suggested they might compromise on these promises to form a government. He also addressed the issue of Haredi conscription, noting that while the war delayed discussions, Netanyahu had repeatedly postponed addressing it even before October 7th. Kok recounted a meeting where Netanyahu promised a conscription law was imminent but failed to deliver, attributing this not to sabotage but to an inability to garner sufficient support.

Regarding the Eisenkot offer, Kok revealed that "Bakehila" will report on a proposal to freeze arrests of draft dodgers for a year while a new conscription law is developed. While this might not require joining the coalition, Asher has stated he won't support a minority government from the outside. Kok sees significant progress in the opposition's willingness to discuss freezing arrests, noting that even among leading rabbis, there's a growing understanding of the need to find solutions for those not engaged in Torah study, provided their Haredi identity is preserved. He mentioned Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch's reported statement to Netanyahu that if a young Haredi could enter and leave the army as a Haredi, the option could be considered.

Kok believes the Haredi public has already achieved two key gains: a shift in public discourse away from harsh criticism of Haredim regarding security burdens, and enhanced bargaining power. He asserted that any future government requiring Haredi support must seriously address their demands concerning Torah study and Haredi lifestyle. He also noted a divergence between Shas, which maintains its alliance with Netanyahu under Aryeh Deri, and United Torah Judaism, which under Yaakov Asher is pursuing a more independent path, a split he believes benefits both parties by allowing them to cater to different voter segments and exert political pressure. Kok concluded that while direct negotiations are far from agreement, the Haredi parties have already secured concessions and strengthened their position.