Israel Must Grasp US Political Shift, Author Warns

Israel and American Jewry must unite to confront a new reality in the United States, according to author Zalman Shoval. He argues that while Israeli pollsters largely missed the recent election results, their American counterparts were remarkably accurate. However, Shoval cautions against focusing solely on numbers, emphasizing that the stances of elected officials are crucial. Contrary to media focus on the far-left, moderate and conservative candidates achieved more victories, which could significantly impact Democratic party positions on issues like relations with Israel over the next two years, despite the continued ideological influence of the far-left wing on the party's presidential nominee for 2028. Moderate and conservative voices will be essential for passing legislation, even with a Democratic majority.

The new Congress convenes on January 3, and the intervening eight weeks are critical for political and security matters, particularly concerning Iran. Some in the US, including Republicans, attribute Republican losses to the war in Iran and its economic fallout, while others blame its premature cessation. Shoval stresses the deep interconnectedness between the US and Israel, noting that nearly half of the world's Jewish population resides in America, making any shift in the US reverberate in Israel. Discussions about security aid are prominent, and while new House Speaker Jeffries affirmed the need to maintain Israel's qualitative military edge, he limited this to the Iran threat, overlooking Israel's multi-front security challenges.

Shoval warns that both Israel and American Jewry are entering a defensive posture, anticipating potential anti-Israel and antisemitic candidates from both the left and right in the 2028 presidential election. He attributes growing anti-Israel sentiment in parts of the American public to societal changes and misinformation, directed at the state itself rather than specific governments. He dismisses the idea that a change in Israeli government would resolve these issues, predicting a difficult, not lost, struggle impacting more than just security.

While the Israeli public focused on former President Trump's remarks about halting security aid, Shoval suggests that Israeli leadership, like Prime Minister Netanyahu, should have anticipated such possibilities. He posits that both sides may be negotiating a new framework for security cooperation that benefits both nations. The US also gains from the strategic relationship, with aid constituting only about 1% of the US budget and 90% returning to the American economy. Shoval concludes that a unity government in Israel is not only a domestic necessity but also crucial for US relations and restoring a full alliance with American Jewry.