Israel Fears Iran Confrontation Without US Support Amid Military Challenges

Israeli security forces are increasingly concerned about the country's future due to potential escalation in the Middle East, with a primary worry being a confrontation with Iran without American backing. Military correspondent Avi Ashkenazi of Maariv reports that the incoming government will face numerous security challenges, including the Iranian threat, rebuilding military readiness, stockpiling supplies, conscription issues, and personnel shortages. A significant concern is the possibility of Israel having to act alone against Iran in the coming months, as Tehran might attempt to disrupt U.S. plans before the inauguration of the new U.S. Congress. Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that the Iranian threat persists, noting Tehran's continued efforts to obtain nuclear weapons and its dangerous actions against Israel. He stressed the need for Israel to be prepared for any scenario.

To address these challenges, the defense establishment believes the new government must simultaneously pursue multiple strategies. These include urging the U.S. to take more decisive action against Iran, potentially involving Kurdish forces, and forming a military alliance with Arab states in the Persian Gulf, Egypt, and Jordan to enhance regional security and deterrence. However, Israel must also prepare for independent military action, as its current air force and IDF capabilities are deemed sufficient for such a scenario, provided there is political support to prevent multi-front escalations.

The IDF faces a critical personnel shortage, with over 12,000 soldiers missing, including more than 7,500 for combat units. Efforts to mitigate this include reassigning recruits, reducing attrition from combat units, and expanding units like artillery, armor, border defense, and the Home Front Command. The army plans to request an extension of mandatory service to 36 months, with additional compensation for combat soldiers serving beyond the current term. Integrating the ultra-Orthodox population into the military is also seen as a way to address the deficit.

Furthermore, a shift in military operational strategy is advised, moving from large-scale operations to sustained security along controlled borders from Lebanon and Syria to Gaza. This would reduce reliance on reservists and ease the burden on the army, though it may require political decisions in certain areas. The article also highlights the issue of violence by radical Jewish activists in Judea and Samaria, which undermines regional stability and Israel's international standing. Specific concerns include the Defense Minister's decision to limit administrative detentions, delays in clearing illegal outposts, and insufficient accountability for violent perpetrators.

Finally, a major task is strengthening the armed forces, hindered by the aftermath of three years of conflict, defense budget deficits, reduced U.S. aid, and international isolation. The global arms race and rapid technological advancements necessitate a long-term rearmament program and sustained funding for the next decade, as future conflicts will heavily rely on advanced technologies. Israel must maintain its technological edge and stay ahead of potential adversaries.