US Re-evaluates Policy of Silence on Israel's Nuclear Arsenal

For decades, the United States has maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding Israel's nuclear capabilities, a tacit agreement to neither confirm nor deny its existence. However, this long-standing policy is facing increasing pressure, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict with Iran. US lawmakers are reportedly questioning the wisdom of continuing this strategy, with some arguing it is dangerous for the US to be involved in conflicts alongside Israel without openly discussing its nuclear capabilities and potential use.

The policy of ambiguity dates back to the late 1950s and early 1960s, coinciding with the construction of Israel's nuclear facility in Dimona. In 1960, US diplomats were told by an Israeli Ministry of Finance representative, Addi Cohen, that the site was a "textile factory," though US intelligence later determined its true purpose. Further suspicion arose in 1965 when hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium went missing from a US facility, with some intelligence officials believing the material may have been diverted to Israel's nuclear program.

During the Cold War, Washington feared that publicly acknowledging Israel's nuclear status could prompt Arab nations to develop their own nuclear programs or seek Soviet support. In 1969, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger discussed the issue with President Richard Nixon, noting Washington's desire to prevent Israel's nuclear capability from becoming an officially recognized international fact. Following a meeting between Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister in September 1969, US pressure on Israel's nuclear program reportedly eased, leading to what historian Avner Cohen believes was an agreement on the unwritten rules of this policy.

In 1986, Mordechai Vanunu, a former technician at the Dimona facility, leaked photographs and information about Israel's nuclear program to The Sunday Times, largely dispelling international doubts about its existence. Vanunu was subsequently convicted of treason and espionage and served 18 years in an Israeli prison. Despite this, Israel's official stance has remained unchanged. In 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu, when asked by CNN about the country's nuclear capabilities, reiterated Israel's policy of not being the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region.

More recently, US Representative Joaquin Castro has become a prominent advocate for revising the policy of ambiguity. He argues that the silence is outdated and dangerous, especially with US military personnel in the region. Castro raised the issue in congressional hearings, prompting a direct public statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who acknowledged that most countries assume Israel possesses nuclear weapons but that the US does not discuss it openly, emphasizing the need for a careful balance. The growing nuclear ambitions of Iran, which reportedly retains nearly a thousand pounds of highly enriched uranium, and Saudi Arabia's consideration of strengthening its own nuclear capabilities if Iran develops a bomb, are intensifying the debate. Experts warn that public acknowledgment by Israel could trigger a regional arms race. While there is no consensus on abandoning the policy of ambiguity, the changing regional dynamics and internal US political divisions are making the long-standing arrangement increasingly vulnerable. Nuclear Threat Initiative estimates Israel possesses around 90 warheads, an assessment Israel has not confirmed.