Eisenkot Weighs Minority Government or Ultra-Orthodox Alliance to Form Israeli Coalition
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Gadi Eisenkot is considering two difficult options to form a government in Israel: a minority government or a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties. Both paths face significant obstacles, including the continued support of Arie Deri's Shas party for Benjamin Netanyahu and the complex issue of military conscription for the ultra-Orthodox. Avigdor Lieberman has stated his party will oppose a minority government, and Bennett and Lieberman are wary of compromising their electoral promises. Netanyahu may be forced to make concessions if Eisenkot gains traction, potentially leading to a unity government or his own loss of power.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is exploring forming a minority government or a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties to lead Israel.
- A minority government would require support from Arab parties and could later be joined by ultra-Orthodox factions.
- Securing a majority with Shas and United Torah Judaism is complicated by Shas leader Arie Deri's support for Netanyahu.
- The sensitive issue of military conscription for the ultra-Orthodox remains a major sticking point in negotiations.
- Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett are hesitant to compromise their electoral promises, potentially hindering coalition formation.
- Benjamin Netanyahu might be forced to make concessions if Eisenkot makes significant progress toward forming a government.
Gadi Eisenkot is exploring two challenging paths to forming a government in Israel, potentially without Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister. One option is to establish a minority government, which could later be joined by ultra-Orthodox parties. This strategy would allow Eisenkot to form a government first, then seek to bring the ultra-Orthodox parties in after Netanyahu has left office. However, this path requires the support of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, with Lieberman having stated his party will vote against such a government. Its survival would depend on the abstention of Arab parties during confidence votes, and it would necessitate negotiating with non-coalition factions to pass legislation and budgets.
The second, more direct route involves securing a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, to achieve a 61-seat majority. This is complicated by Shas's continued support for Netanyahu under Arie Deri. Even if United Torah Judaism were open to other options, Eisenkot would still lack the necessary majority without Deri's support. United Torah Judaism's decision to abstain from recommending Netanyahu was reportedly guided by Rabbi Dov Lando, allowing the party to pressure Netanyahu without committing to Eisenkot, while improving its standing with both political camps. The party's insistence on passing the conscription law before coalition talks indicates a desire for concrete action rather than mere promises.
Forming a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly regarding the sensitive conscription law, presents significant hurdles. While Netanyahu has historically failed to deliver on promises to the ultra-Orthodox regarding conscription, a government led by Eisenkot, Lieberman, and Lapid might offer a more broadly supported compromise, though its passage through the Supreme Court is uncertain. Lieberman and Bennett face a dilemma: supporting a compromise that might alienate their voters could lead to a short-lived government and a stronger Netanyahu in future elections. Internal coalition disagreements on conscription, religion, and state, and the budget are expected, even if a slim majority is achieved.
Netanyahu may be compelled to make concessions if Eisenkot makes significant progress toward forming a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Currently, Netanyahu appears to believe he can form a government without Eisenkot and is waiting to see if internal divisions within the "change bloc" will derail Eisenkot's efforts. However, the closer Eisenkot gets to a deal, the higher the political cost for Netanyahu to refuse a unity government. Eisenkot's success hinges on bridging the gap between the ultra-Orthodox demand for exemptions from military service and the opposing promises made by Bennett and Lieberman to their voters.
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