Ex-General Eisenkot Poised to Lead Israel Amid Political Uncertainty

A majority of 67 out of 120 members of the Israeli parliament have expressed support for former military chief Gadi Eisenkot to become the next prime minister. While this indicates significant backing, the path to power is not yet clear. President Isaac Herzog has concluded his consultations with political parties and is expected to task the 66-year-old opposition figure with forming a government on Sunday. However, it remains uncertain whether Eisenkot can successfully assemble a coalition.

Upon receiving the mandate, Eisenkot will have 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. During this period, he is expected to face political maneuvers from the camp of the incumbent right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may attempt to thwart the power transition. If Eisenkot fails, another Knesset member will have 28 days to try. Should that also fail, at least 61 lawmakers can agree on a candidate within 21 days, who then gets another 14 days to form a government. If all attempts fail, the Knesset will automatically dissolve, necessitating new elections within 90 days.

Experts suggest that while an Eisenkot government might improve Israel's international standing, it would not necessarily signal a fundamental shift in security and foreign policy. Eisenkot, the chairman of the centrist party Yaschar, has limited foreign policy experience but is considered security-conservative due to his background as a former IDF Chief of Staff from 2015 to 2019. He is deeply affected by the ongoing conflict, having lost his son and two nephews as soldiers in Gaza. He is known for his reserved, down-to-earth demeanor, contrasting with Netanyahu's public persona.

Regarding Iran, Eisenkot shares Netanyahu's goal of preventing nuclear armament and missile programs but rejects the overthrow of the Iranian leadership as a war aim. His specific approach to continuing or ending the war in Gaza remains unclear. In the West Bank, Eisenkot intends to take a firmer stance against violent settlers, a point of significant difference with Netanyahu, according to political scientist Jonathan Rynhold. While not fundamentally questioning settlement policy, Eisenkot is seen as more willing than Netanyahu to coordinate with Washington on the future of Gaza, focusing on disarming Hamas and establishing new Palestinian governance.

Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu for damaging relations with the United States and dividing Israeli society, vowing to strengthen ties with the US. However, he may need to navigate potential shifts in US policy following midterm elections. Eisenkot previously described the vision of an independent Palestinian state as a "bitter mistake" but might be open to a two-state solution under different political circumstances, provided Palestinians ensure Israel's security. Rynhold characterizes Eisenkot as more pragmatic than Netanyahu.