Analysis Reveals Netanyahu Bloc Lost 11 Seats Due to Electoral Threshold and Shifting Demographics

An analysis of the recent Knesset election results reveals that the "Netanyahu bloc" lost 11 mandates, with less than half of this loss attributed to a decline in national support. The primary reasons for the decrease are changes in the impact of the electoral threshold and a shift in voter demographics. In the 2022 elections, the bloc received approximately 6 additional mandates beyond its proportional share of valid votes, a benefit that has largely disappeared.

The analysis also highlights a significant socioeconomic divide in voting patterns. Support for the Netanyahu bloc, which includes current coalition parties and ultra-Orthodox parties, weakened in all major cities. Higher socioeconomic clusters in polling stations showed decreased support for the bloc, while lower clusters showed increased support for the bloc. The study also tracked the mandates lost by the Shas party and examined cross-sectoral voting, such as Arab citizens voting for Jewish parties and vice versa.

Specifically, the Netanyahu bloc dropped from 64 mandates in 2022 to 53 in the recent election. While there was some loss of support among Jewish voters, only about three of the 11 lost mandates are explained by this. An increase in the proportion of Arab votes accounted for roughly 2.3 mandates. The remaining 5.7 mandates are linked to changes related to the electoral threshold: in 2022, Meretz and Balad failed to pass the threshold, resulting in nearly 300,000 votes not translating into mandates. In the recent election, Am Israel and Noam from the Netanyahu bloc did not pass the threshold, with over 100,000 votes lost.

This shift resulted in the Netanyahu bloc losing 11 mandates, Arab parties gaining 9, and the Eisenkot bloc gaining only 2, as the increased weight of Arab votes also reduced the Eisenkot bloc's proportional share. The Netanyahu bloc lost support across all ten major cities, with Tel Aviv and Jerusalem seeing declines of 4.1 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively. Even in strongholds like Netanya, Ashdod, and Beersheba, where the bloc had over 60% of the vote in 2022, support decreased, though the "change bloc" gained less, with votes shifting to the "reservists and economic" party which did not pass the threshold.

Cross-sectoral voting remains minimal, with only 5% of votes in Arab communities going to non-Arab parties in the recent election, down from 7% in 2022. Conversely, less than 0.5% of votes in Jewish communities went to Arab parties in both elections. Shas, a major loser, dropped from 11 mandates to 6, with losses attributed to votes shifting within the bloc to the Netanyahu bloc in non-Haredi neighborhoods, and to new Haredi lists like "Black Color" in Haredi areas.

The analysis also found distinct socioeconomic voting patterns. In Jewish polling stations, support for the "change bloc" increased with higher socioeconomic rankings, while support for the Netanyahu bloc decreased. In the lowest socioeconomic clusters (1-3), support was primarily for Haredi parties. Middle clusters (4-7) showed nearly equal support for both blocs, while higher clusters (8 and above) favored the "change bloc." The Likud party, along with Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, and Yisrael Beiteinu, primarily draws support from middle socioeconomic clusters (61%-67%). Change bloc parties like Democrats and Yachad show higher support in upper clusters, with Democrats leaning heavily on the highest socioeconomic group.