Israel Faces New Challenge in Washington After US Midterm Elections

Israel's critical strategic alliance with the United States is facing an unprecedented test following the US midterm elections, which have empowered Democrats in Congress who are skeptical of unwavering support for Israel. This shift is prompting prominent Republicans, including President Trump, to call for a reassessment of policy, altering the landscape more rapidly than Jerusalem had anticipated.

Compounding the issue, Israel is mired in a deep leadership crisis after its recent elections failed to produce a clear victor, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a political survival battle against his rival, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. While Netanyahu leveraged his close ties with Trump as a key election asset, both his political standing and US-Israel relations are now precarious, all against a backdrop of ongoing conflicts with Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza, and increasing international isolation.

"There is unbelievable panic in Israel," stated Josh Krasna, a former diplomat and senior fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center. "Israelis were raised to believe Americans would always be our friends, and in a way, this has been a wake-up call." Although Israel still enjoys significant congressional support, the Democratic gains have bolstered the ranks of lawmakers likely to demand conditions on aid or block arms transfers.

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), predicts that future financial aid could face stringent limitations, with Congress demanding much closer oversight of American arms usage, particularly concerning Israeli policy toward Palestinians. Citrinowicz warns that the implications extend beyond financial aid, as future administrations might refrain from vetoing critical UN decisions against Israel and draw a sharper distinction between defending Israel and supporting its offensive military actions.

The new sentiment within the Democratic Party was starkly illustrated when Congressman-elect Brad Lander responded critically to Yair Lapid's proposal for a US "tour" to mend support, stating, "We are not thirsty for election tours and performances. We are hungry to see respect for international law and human rights."

This current rift stems from years of overt partisan political alignment characterizing the Netanyahu era, clashing with the Democratic "blue wave." Critics have long argued that Netanyahu neglected the Democratic Party, where support for Israel has declined, partly due to the Gaza war. However, recent events suggest the problem runs deeper than inter-party divisions.

On election day, President Trump surprised Israeli officials by announcing in a Fox News interview that military aid to Israel would cease "by the end of this current year," explaining it was to undermine Democratic candidates like Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, who had campaigned on ending aid. Following the Republican defeat, Vice President J.D. Vance attributed the blame to voter frustration with the war in Iran and relations with Israel. Former senior US official Dan Shapiro sharply analyzed the situation, stating, "Netanyahu has become toxic for almost every Democrat and also for many Republicans who link the war to their defeat. This is an emergency for Israel. If it wants to preserve this relationship, it cannot happen with Netanyahu."

The current upheaval evokes memories of the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the Eisenhower administration threatened sanctions over Israel's invasion of Sinai. Iran has already seized on this comparison, with a Revolutionary Guards spokesperson likening the current US stance in the Strait of Hormuz toward Israel to the Anglo-French failure then. However, the US and Israel have historically rebuilt their relationship and navigated strategic crises.

International attention is now focused on Israel's political resolution. President Herzog is set to task either Netanyahu or Eisenkot with forming a government. Eisenkot appears to have a higher chance due to more recommendations but faces complex political hurdles. Eisenkot has pledged to restore the relationship: "Under my leadership, we will renew and deepen the partnership, strengthen the bipartisan foundations, and work for a Middle East defined not only by the absence of conflict but by opportunities and cooperation."

The next Israeli government, regardless of its composition, will have to contend with both a Congress and a White House demanding a complete "reset" of relations. As former senior National Security Council official Avner Golav summarized, "On October 7th, we learned a hard lesson that we need to listen to our enemies. Now we have learned that we must do exactly the same with our friends."