Israeli Coalition Building: Lessons from Past Negotiations
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
Insights from past Israeli coalition negotiations reveal complex strategies, including the Likud party's 2021 insistence on Naftali Bennett leading a rotation to secure Gideon Saar's support. Despite failed attempts to form governments, lessons learned from these intricate talks inform current political maneuvering. Experts emphasize that trust is not essential for negotiations, and maintaining ambiguity can be a key strategy for leverage in forming future governments.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- In 2021, Likud insisted Naftali Bennett lead a rotation to secure Gideon Saar's support for a government.
- Negotiations in 2021 failed due to a lack of two additional Knesset members, not substantive disagreements.
- Yair Lapid formed a government with Bennett as PM after Netanyahu's attempt failed.
- Experts state trust is not a prerequisite for coalition negotiations.
- Maintaining ambiguity in negotiations can be a strategic advantage, according to experts.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly seeking a broad national government with his "natural partners," but past negotiations reveal a complex history of coalition maneuvering. In 2021, during intense coalition talks, Netanyahu's Likud party insisted that Naftali Bennett serve as the first prime minister in a rotation, a move aimed at enticing Gideon Saar to join a right-wing government. Dr. Gil Bringer, who was part of Yamina's negotiation team, stated that Likud's demand for Bennett to lead first was a strategy to overcome Saar's objection to serving under Netanyahu.
At that time, Netanyahu had received the most recommendations to form a government but struggled to secure a majority. The negotiations with Yamina were complicated by the need for two additional Knesset members to form a coalition. Bringer recalled that while negotiations were conducted with both Likud and Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's party), the ultimate goal was to finalize a deal with Likud. However, the coalition ultimately failed to materialize due to the lack of the necessary two MKs, not due to substantive disagreements.
Following the collapse of Netanyahu's attempt, Yair Lapid successfully formed a narrow government with the Islamist party Ra'am, with Bennett serving as prime minister first. This outcome, Bringer noted, was facilitated by the groundwork laid during the earlier, less serious negotiations.
Legal experts and former negotiators, including attorney Yoram Rabed, who worked with Ariel Sharon, and attorney Moti Kristal, a negotiation and crisis management expert, shared insights into the intricacies of coalition building. They emphasized that trust is not a prerequisite for negotiations and that various mechanisms can overcome a lack of confidence. Kristal highlighted the importance of parallel negotiations and avoiding premature agreements with any single party, as this can set a minimum bar for others.
Rabed recounted how, during the Sharon government, the support of Arab parties was crucial for maintaining a majority, even when Netanyahu and Israel Katz were ministers. He also described the creation of the "Deputy Prime Minister" title for Shimon Peres as a political maneuver to accommodate him, involving the establishment of a new ministry. Kristal advised that in the current political deadlock, Gadi Eisenkot, who has garnered recommendations, should maintain ambiguity about his intentions, similar to Avigdor Lieberman's strategy, to gain leverage.
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