Netanyahu's Efforts to Disrupt Coalition Formation Face Growing Challenges

Israel's Central Elections Committee officially certified the election results on November 4, with a majority of fifteen members voting in favor, two against, and fourteen abstaining. This procedural step formally submits the results to President Isaac Herzog, who will then begin consultations with parliamentary blocs to assign the task of forming the next government. Despite being a legally mandated procedure, the certification was not automatic and was preceded by significant efforts by Committee Chairman Judge Solberg to dissuade the Likud party and its allies from voting against the results. They ultimately abstained, while Ben Gvir voted against certification, an action that could have led to an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Such a crisis remains a possibility if Likud appeals to the Supreme Court, potentially leading Netanyahu to refuse to cede power and demand new elections, remaining as a caretaker prime minister indefinitely.

The Israeli system lacks a clear mechanism for constitutional deadlock, potentially allowing the far-right to seize power and disregard legal constraints. Judge Solberg emphasized the importance of a peaceful transfer of power. Following the October 27 election, initial reports from Solberg and Shin Bet head Zini indicated the elections were proceeding smoothly. However, after Netanyahu's bloc lost its parliamentary majority, accusations of election "theft" emerged, evolving into claims of Arab voter influence and an "electoral October 7." The Likud alleged irregularities involving approximately 5,000 votes in Arab boxes could have altered the outcome, though they actually needed around 150,000 votes to gain an additional seat.

A conversation between Netanyahu's office and the Shin Bet head shifted the narrative to alleged foreign interference. Following pressure from the opposition, Zini clarified that suspicions were intelligence-based, specific, and did not implicate the entire Arab public. On November 3, Zini announced the Shin Bet's intention to investigate Arab party leaders, citing special authorization for surveillance. The Attorney General opposed these investigations, requiring concrete evidence rather than intelligence suspicions, and protested Zini's refusal to transfer evidence for legal review. This led Zini to accuse her of undermining the investigations, while the Likud called the Shin Bet's data a "political earthquake" and accused the Attorney General of sabotage, fueling a campaign to question the election's legitimacy.

Ben Gvir called for the arrest of Arab lawmakers pending investigation into foreign interference. The Joint List and Ra'am parties condemned the campaign, accusing Zini, appointed by Netanyahu, of acting as his political arm to steal the election. On the same day, activist Abd Abu Shehadeh was arrested for a journalistic interview in Doha with Ezmi Bishara. The Shin Bet also intended to investigate MK Ayman Odeh for allegedly raising funds from a foreign entity. The Attorney General did not approve these requests. Tensions also rose between Zini and senior Shin Bet officials who questioned his competence and loyalty to Netanyahu over the agency. Zini stated investigations would extend to over a thousand individuals in the Palestinian Arab community.

On the evening of November 4, Netanyahu released a recorded address alleging Muslim Brotherhood control over Western nations and intent to undermine Israel, warning against including "supporters of terrorism" in the opposition coalition and calling for a broad national government under his leadership. The article notes that the Arab vote exceeded expectations, securing nineteen seats, the highest in history. Netanyahu and the far-right view this strength as a threat, while most opposition parties find it politically inconvenient. Eizenkot's candidacy for forming a government is largely due to the Arab vote. Netanyahu's statements suggest an intent to cling to power by delegating the Arab vote as illegitimate and claiming foreign interference. However, recent developments have exposed the fragility of his plan, with the opposition and former/current security officials launching a campaign against Shin Bet head Zini's conduct.

The Attorney General refused to approve investigations against Arab party leaders. Judge Solberg succeeded in certifying the results, preventing their obstruction at this stage. The ruling coalition's cohesion is weakening, with the withdrawal of the Haredi parties appearing likely, potentially impacting Netanyahu's options. The first Knesset session on November 11 is expected to see the ousting of the current Knesset speaker, a Netanyahu ally, and the election of a replacement from the change bloc, supported by Arab parties and Haredim, further diminishing Netanyahu's chances.

Netanyahu's reliance on Trump's support was shaken by the US midterm election results, which saw Republican failures. Statements from Trump and De Vance suggested the war on Iran was a factor, potentially questioning the urgency of military action and the future of US aid to Israel. The campaign against Arab parties is reportedly backfiring, potentially inciting violence against Arab communities while increasing the legitimacy of Netanyahu's opposition. International media coverage is also isolating Netanyahu. The article concludes that the risks of a violent clash or a constitutional crisis leading to indefinite rule by Netanyahu remain, but Arab parties have succeeded in disrupting his plans and strengthening the resolve of Eizenkot and his allies to form an alternative government. Netanyahu's chances of disrupting a new coalition appear to be diminishing, potentially leading to a less "brutal" reality.