Democrats' Midterm Wins May Lead to Scrutiny of US Aid to Israel

Following their victories in the midterm elections, Democrats are increasingly calling for a review of U.S. support for Israel. Several newly elected candidates advocate for restricting or banning arms exports to Israel, with these sentiments extending to centrist Democrats. Despite growing criticism of Israel, American Jewish voters largely maintained their support for the Democratic Party, though some internal divisions were noted.

An analysis by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggests that the election results could empower Democrats to exert unprecedented pressure on Israel. Potential actions include limiting arms transfers, curbing the U.S. president's ability to engage in conflict alongside Israel, and investigating settler violence against Palestinians. This shift is exemplified by the win of Democratic candidate Abdul Rahman Al-Sayed in Michigan, who has taken strong stances against Israel, indicating that such positions did not hinder his electoral success in a swing state.

Al-Sayed stated, "We want our tax dollars invested here, not wasted on fighting a genocidal war," referring to U.S.-backed conflicts. Other victories included candidates supported by the Democratic Socialists of America, such as Mala Keros in New York and Colorado, who advocate for a complete arms embargo on Israel and a binational state. The analysis notes that these views are becoming more common among House Democrats.

The shift is not confined to the left wing of the party. Centrist candidates Adam Hamilton and Josh Turk, running for Senate seats in Kansas and Iowa, also supported restrictions on the types of weapons Israel can receive. Turk commented during his campaign that U.S. taxpayer money should not be used to harm or kill children and civilians.

Despite these evolving views, the Democratic leadership in Congress, represented by Hakeem Jeffries in the House and Chuck Schumer in the Senate, remains supportive of Israel. However, they will lead a caucus with a growing number of members seeking to alter the U.S.-Israel relationship. Potential congressional actions include limiting the president's war powers, delaying arms transfers, and compelling the State Department to investigate settler attacks in the West Bank.

While the president can veto legislation, Democrats may leverage their congressional majority for increased oversight and to force discussions on previously bipartisan issues. The analysis also suggests that Republicans might not automatically oppose all measures to restrict aid to Israel, citing President Trump's past comments about halting military funding as an indication that concerns about large aid packages are not exclusive to Democrats.

Contrary to expectations from some Republican Jewish circles, Jewish voters did not significantly shift away from the Democrats. Exit polls indicated that 67% of Jewish voters supported Democrats, a figure consistent with previous elections. Halie Soifer, Executive Director of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, commented that predictions of Jewish voters abandoning the Democrats were "completely overblown," adding that Jewish voters "despise Trump and the Republican Party he controls."

However, the election revealed complexities in districts where Israel was a prominent issue. In Oakland County, Michigan, Al-Sayed won in heavily Jewish areas, but with narrower margins compared to other Democratic candidates. This suggests some Jewish voters had reservations about his stance on Israel, though it did not prevent his victory.

The analysis also points to a broader trend where domestic U.S. issues, particularly the future of democracy, have become more important to Jewish voters than Israel. Surveys show that 36% of Jewish voters prioritize the future of democracy, while only 16% rank Israel as a top concern. This prioritization has not eliminated internal community divisions, especially in states like Michigan and Texas, where some voters faced difficult choices between candidates with differing views on Israel.