Shas Backs Netanyahu, While United Torah Judaism Weighs Options

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to regulate the status of yeshiva students and criticized the "change bloc" shortly before Shas announced it would recommend him to the president for government formation. Netanyahu stated that the "change bloc" and media have engaged in "unbridled incitement" against the ultra-Orthodox sector for four years, accusing them of hypocrisy for now calling the draft law "soft" instead of "evasion." He emphasized that the Likud and the right-wing bloc are committed to ensuring yeshiva students can continue their studies, with those not studying Torah being drafted into the IDF. Shas explicitly linked Netanyahu's commitment to their decision, with their Council of Torah Sages recommending him to the President. The party also attacked left-wing parties for their "unprecedented campaign of slander" against the ultra-Orthodox.

Behind these statements lies a political struggle for the formation of the next government. Likud is reportedly focused on preventing coalition talks between the ultra-Orthodox parties and Gadi Eisenkot's "change bloc," which could potentially grant Eisenkot a majority. Shas's announcement and its sharp criticism of left-wing parties cast doubt on Arie Deri's potential participation in an Eisenkot-led government.

United Torah Judaism (UTJ) remains ambiguous, with party chairman Yaakov Asher speaking with Netanyahu. UTJ's decision on whether to recommend Netanyahu, Eisenkot, or abstain will be made closer to their meeting with President Yitzhak Herzog on Thursday. The party is also considering opening coalition negotiations with Eisenkot's bloc, acknowledging the complexity but viewing it as a real possibility. UTJ is exploring whether their entry into a "change government" could pave the way for Shas to join later, allowing Deri to claim his party did not enable the government's formation.

However, sources close to Shas are skeptical, believing Deri would not join a government without Likud, citing the right-wing leanings of Shas voters. Avigdor Lieberman's stance may also be influenced by Shas's decision. If UTJ joins an Eisenkot government and Shas does not, the "change bloc" and UTJ would only have 55 seats, insufficient for a majority without Lieberman. Eisenkot might then consider a minority government with UTJ, excluding Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu, requiring external support from Arab parties.

A critical issue for UTJ is the draft law. They must decide whether to condition coalition talks with Eisenkot on legislation regulating yeshiva students' status, a demand they also made of Netanyahu. This condition could determine if talks with the "change bloc" progress. UTJ is aware that joining a government before the legislation is finalized could weaken their leverage, as Arab parties might provide parliamentary support, potentially allowing the government to continue even if UTJ withdraws over the draft law.