Iran's Potential Responses to War: Oil, Internet, and Missiles to Europe
Translated & summarized from Makor Rishon by baba
Iran is preparing a wide array of military and non-military responses to a potential conflict with the US and Israel, including missile strikes, cyberattacks, and threats to global internet infrastructure. Tehran is also fortifying its defenses and preparing for potential internal unrest. The article warns against underestimating Iran's capabilities and its willingness to inflict damage on sensitive points to deter an attack. Potential responses range from kinetic attacks on regional targets and Europe to disrupting maritime and internet traffic, and even environmental sabotage.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Iran is preparing diverse military responses to potential US and Israeli attacks, including missile and drone strikes.
- Tehran threatens to disrupt global internet traffic by cutting underwater communication cables.
- Iran may launch missiles at European countries, expanding its strike range beyond the region.
- The Houthis in Yemen are identified as a key Iranian proxy capable of threatening Red Sea shipping.
- Cyberattacks and infrastructure disruption are ongoing, targeting civilian and strategic facilities.
- Iran is also preparing for potential domestic unrest and strengthening internal defenses.
Iran is preparing a range of military responses to a potential attack by the United States and Israel, threatening to engulf the entire region in flames if hostilities resume. Tehran is reportedly bolstering its defenses, protecting its leaders, and fortifying its rule even in emergencies. The article warns against underestimating Iran, describing it as a formidable and dangerous enemy that skillfully leverages its advantages. However, it also suggests that some of Iran's pronouncements may be psychological pressure tactics to deter war.
Potential Iranian responses include kinetic attacks, similar to past actions, involving missile and drone strikes targeting regional countries, US military bases, and potentially Israel. The article notes a renewed, openly discussed threat to launch missiles at European countries, citing Iran's capability to strike targets at similar distances, as demonstrated by a past attempt to hit the US base on Diego Garcia. Iran may also continue attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and potentially expand efforts to block the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea, possibly with Houthi assistance.
Iran is also exploring new offensive tactics like ground invasions into neighboring countries, though the article suggests Gulf states would need to repel such incursions. The Houthis in Yemen are identified as Iran's most effective proxy, capable of threatening maritime passage in the Red Sea with their arsenal of missiles, drones, and unmanned submarines. While the Houthis previously pledged not to attack US or Israeli ships, they might break this commitment.
Cyberattacks and infrastructure disruption are ongoing, targeting civilian facilities like banks, internet services, and power plants. Iran has also openly threatened to sever global internet traffic by cutting underwater communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz and potentially in the Red Sea, which carries a significant portion of Asia-Europe internet traffic. Environmental attacks, such as oil spills or the use of dirty bombs, are also considered, though Iran might avoid large-scale incidents due to potential self-harm and international backlash.
Internally, Iran is preparing for potential domestic unrest, including protests and coup attempts, by restricting internet access and increasing security force presence. The article concludes by stating that Iran, though a weaker player, aims to exert pressure and inflict pain on its enemies' sensitive points to deter an attack, rather than achieve outright military victory. This strategy, driven by a calculated worldview, seeks to create chaos and demonstrate that Iran will not be deterred from using all available means to repel an enemy.