US Midterm Elections Could Harm Israel Twice, Expert Warns

Professor Eitan Gilboa, an expert on the United States, has warned that Israel could be negatively impacted twice by the upcoming US midterm elections. He believes that President Donald Trump prefers a deal with Iran over a high-intensity war, and that the midterm results could lead to a Congress hostile to Israel. Gilboa noted that Trump's administration is concerned about potential Iranian retaliation against Gulf states if US strikes target their energy infrastructure, leading to a debate within the White House.

Gilboa explained that the midterm elections involve all 435 House of Representatives seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. Current polls and historical trends suggest Trump's Republican party is likely to lose control of the House, and potentially the Senate and governorships, a scenario he described as a "blue wave" and a significant defeat.

He cautioned that a hostile Congress, particularly one with a strong contingent from the most extreme wing of the Democratic party, could undermine Trump's policies, including the Iran strategy. This could also affect Israel's ability to acquire weapons and aid from the US. Gilboa added that while many Democrats are friends of Israel, the influence of the party's more extreme elements remains a concern, as does a radical right-wing faction within the Republican party, some of whom he described as antisemitic.

Gilboa also commented on the unprecedented political interference between the US and Israel, citing both Trump's involvement in Israeli politics and Netanyahu's in American politics. He stated that Trump does not want a government that includes ministers like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, believing they have hindered his plans in Gaza and Lebanon. Gilboa concluded that Trump would prefer them out of any national unity government.