Hendel and Zehlik's Election Hopes Hinge on Reserve Soldiers' Votes
Translated & summarized from Now 14 by baba
Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlik's new party is struggling to cross Israel's electoral threshold after a high turnout in the Arab sector raised the required votes. Despite a grassroots campaign, they need an exceptional surge from reserve soldiers' votes to enter the Knesset. Historical precedents suggest this is unlikely, and final results are expected Tuesday evening.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Hendel and Zehlik's party needs over 50,000 more votes to enter the Knesset.
- High Arab voter turnout raised the electoral threshold to approximately 185,000 votes.
- Their only hope is a strong performance from reserve soldiers' double envelope votes.
- The party garnered over 130,000 votes with a low-budget, social media campaign.
- Historical precedent shows difficulty in achieving such a late surge in votes.
The political partnership of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlik faces a slim chance of entering the Knesset, having garnered over 130,000 votes with a low-budget, social media-driven campaign. Their challenge is compounded by a surprisingly high voter turnout in the Arab sector, which significantly raised the electoral threshold to approximately 185,000 votes. This leaves them tens of thousands of votes short, with their only remaining hope resting on an exceptionally strong showing among reserve soldiers voting via double envelopes.
The campaign, characterized by volunteer activists and a modest budget of 3.8 million shekels, outperformed other parties that invested more resources but achieved lower vote counts. Despite their grassroots success, Hendel and Zehlik are now in a precarious position. With nearly 90% of votes counted, they stand at around 132,000 votes, needing an additional 50,000 to cross the threshold.
This requires them to secure over 11% of the approximately 450,000 double envelope votes, a rate more than 3.5 times their current support among the general electorate. The party is banking on Hendel's campaign focus on reserve soldiers, hoping this demographic will provide a disproportionately large number of votes. However, historical precedent, like Naftali Bennett's New Right party in 2019 which narrowly missed the threshold despite significant support from double envelopes, suggests this is a difficult feat.
Factors contributing to their struggle include the high Arab voter turnout, votes potentially drawn by Ofer Winter's candidacy, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign against their party. If they fail to enter the Knesset, Hendel and Zehlik are expected to attempt to rebuild their political infrastructure for future elections, potentially benefiting from a scenario where a broad national government is not formed.
Final results, particularly from the double envelope votes, are expected by Tuesday evening, which will determine if Hendel and Zehlik make it into the Knesset or join the ranks of parties that fell short.