i24NEWS Pollster Triumphs in Election Night Predictions
Translated & summarized from Walla by baba
The election night exit poll by i24NEWS and Direct Polls proved the most accurate, surprising competitors. CEO Tzuriel Sharon attributed the success to advanced technology and understanding voter sentiment. Pollster Shmuel Rosner of Channel 13 identified high turnout, the Likud's strength, and a bloc advantage for the coalition as key election surprises. Mano Geva of Channel 12 is awaiting final results before commenting.
The story in 4 lines · by baba
- i24NEWS's election exit poll by Direct Polls was the most accurate, surprising industry peers.
- Direct Polls CEO Tzuriel Sharon cited advanced technology and understanding voter sentiment for accuracy.
- Channel 13's Shmuel Rosner noted high turnout, Likud's strength, and bloc advantage as surprises.
- Mano Geva of Channel 12 will comment only after official election results are released.
The election night exit poll conducted by i24NEWS, through its partner Direct Polls, has been hailed as the most accurate, surprising many in the media and polling industry. Tzuriel Sharon, 42, CEO and owner of Direct Polls, stated that the poll's success was a "watershed event," attributing it to significant investment in technological tools and a deep understanding of voter sentiment beyond mere numbers. Sharon noted that while other pollsters might excel at data, they may have missed the human element and the nuances of Israeli society, potentially becoming trapped in echo chambers.
Sharon suggested that the poll results indicate a diminished influence of media outlets on broad segments of the public, with media narratives of division contrasting with the public's sentiment for unity. He criticized some channels for presenting a distorted reality to specific audiences, asserting that the public is discerning and votes based on gut feelings, which are harder to quantify. Sharon expressed confidence in his poll, which he did not update during the night, and was pleased to see its accuracy validated, though he regretted that other channels did not initially broadcast their findings.
Mano Geva of the "Midgam" institute, a pollster for Channel 12 News, has deferred comment until the final results are officially released. Shmuel Rosner of "HaMadad" for Channel 13 News, acknowledged that pollsters often struggle to reconcile their expectations with reality, citing denial, despair, and narrative rewriting as common reactions. He highlighted three key surprises from the election night:
First, the exceptionally high voter turnout, particularly in the Arab sector, which exceeded expectations. Rosner admitted that he and Professor David Steinberg had conservatively estimated 16 mandates for Arab parties, and that listening to their Arab sector pollster, Yosef Makladah, who suggested 17, might have brought them closer to the actual results.
Second, the strong showing for the Likud party, which had a significant psychological impact and fueled the perception of widespread errors in polling. Rosner stated that even unpublished polls in the days leading up to the election did not predict this outcome, and he believes other pollsters also missed it.
Third, the balance of power between political blocs leaned more towards the coalition than anticipated by most polls. While acknowledging the high turnout and the significant vote for Arab parties as contributing factors, Rosner suggested that sampling methodology might also play a role in explaining this discrepancy. He concluded that while polls generally predicted the overall political outcome, the notion that "no side would be satisfied" was only partially true, as many voters were mistaken in expecting a decisive victory for one bloc.
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