Trump's Endorsement Causes Minor Shift in Israeli Prime Minister Betting Odds

Following U.S. President Donald Trump's public endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just nine days before Israeli elections, the international betting market Polymarket saw a notable, though temporary, fluctuation in odds. Initially, Netanyahu's probability of becoming the next prime minister rose from 28% to 32% after Trump's statement. However, this increase was partially reversed, with the odds settling at 30%.

Concurrently, Gadi Eisenkot, who remains the frontrunner on the betting platform, experienced a significant drop in his odds. Eisenkot's probability, which had been around 53%-54%, fell to approximately 45% before recovering slightly to 47%. This indicates that while Netanyahu saw a boost, Eisenkot's position weakened.

Despite the temporary surge following Trump's declaration, Netanyahu's odds only gained two percentage points from his pre-statement level, with half of the initial rise erased. The endorsement from the White House has influenced the market but has not fundamentally altered the overall picture.

As of the report, Eisenkot still leads the betting market with 47.1% probability, compared to Netanyahu's 30%, a difference of over 17 percentage points. Naftali Bennett follows with 12%, and Avigdor Lieberman trails with 2.8%.

Polymarket officials emphasize that their platform is not a traditional election poll. It functions as a marketplace where participants trade real money on future event outcomes, and the percentages reflect probabilities derived from contract prices, not public support for candidates.