Lieberman Unveils Plan to Oust Netanyahu Post-Election

Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, announced on October 17th his intention to use parliamentary mechanisms to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power immediately after the upcoming Knesset elections. Lieberman's strategy, detailed on social media, involves replacing the current Knesset speaker and passing a law that could prevent a prime minister facing criminal charges from forming a government. He plans to initiate these steps before coalition formation talks conclude.

The first move would be to replace the current Knesset speaker, with Lieberman aiming for opponents of Netanyahu to elect their own candidate once the new Knesset is sworn in. The subsequent step is to advance the "Vulnerable Law," which would bar politicians under criminal indictment from serving as prime minister. Lieberman intends to push this bill through all three readings in the Knesset, creating a legislative barrier to Netanyahu's return to leadership.

This strategy's uniqueness lies in its pre-coalition timing, allowing anti-Netanyahu factions to leverage a potential parliamentary majority to reshape subsequent negotiation conditions. Political commentator Matti Tuchfeld previously suggested a similar scenario, where parties opposing Netanyahu could focus on controlling the Knesset even amidst disagreements on government composition. Controlling the speaker's position would grant opposition forces greater influence over the parliamentary agenda, committee work, and legislation.

Implementing this plan requires coordinated voting across various political factions, and Lieberman's statement does not guarantee majority support or agreement from other parties. Cooperation with Arab political blocs like Ra'am and the Joint List could broaden parliamentary backing for initiatives, even without their joining the future coalition. Potential agreements might extend to budget decisions, though specific terms and willingness to participate remain uncertain.

Beyond legislation targeting Netanyahu, opponents might also push for a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7th. The investigation into Hamas's attack and state responses remains a sensitive political issue. Further legislative restrictions on prime ministerial candidates facing prosecution are also possible, with their legal impact depending on specific provisions and effective dates. The scenario concludes with key parliamentary decisions preceding full coalition negotiations, aiming to first unite against Netanyahu before addressing other political differences.

If a stable coalition cannot be formed, an interim government followed by new elections is a possibility. However, Lieberman's intentions do not automatically end Netanyahu's tenure. Even a new Knesset speaker wouldn't immediately change the prime minister, as the outgoing government continues its duties until a new one is formed. The legal status of the "Vulnerable Law" also remains uncertain, particularly its application to Netanyahu, given his ongoing trial, and could lead to significant legal and political disputes.