Pollster Claims Unique Method Will Reveal Election Surprise
Translated & summarized from Globes by baba
Tzuriel Sharon, owner of Direct Polls, claims his firm's unique polling methods, including an independent panel and in-house analysis, provide more accurate election predictions than competitors. He believes other pollsters misinterpret undecided voters and lag behind public sentiment. Sharon predicts no clear bloc majority in the upcoming elections but believes Netanyahu is best positioned to form a government, though likely a broad coalition. He also defended his firm against accusations of political bias and explained his past partnership with Shlomo Filber.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Tzuriel Sharon claims his firm Direct Polls uses a unique method to predict election outcomes more accurately than competitors.
- Sharon believes other pollsters fail to properly analyze undecided voters and lag behind public sentiment.
- Direct Polls' predictions for the upcoming elections show no clear majority for either bloc.
- Sharon anticipates Prime Minister Netanyahu is closest to forming a government, likely a broad coalition.
- The pollster defended his firm against accusations of political bias and explained his past partnership with Shlomo Filber.
Tzuriel Sharon, owner of the Direct Polls survey institute, claims his firm's unique methodology allows them to accurately predict election outcomes, often differing from mainstream polls. Sharon asserts that other pollsters rely on external panels and outdated analysis methods, leading to a delay in reflecting the public's true sentiment. Direct Polls, he explains, utilizes its own independent panel and an in-house analysis process, eschewing traditional phone surveys for internet-based data collection to avoid interviewer bias and respondent discomfort.
Sharon's approach emphasizes understanding the emotional and identity-driven nature of Israeli voting, particularly how undecided voters and those who previously voted for the ruling bloc are likely to behave. He believes that most pollsters err by isolating undecided voters rather than factoring in their tendency to return to their original bloc, even if reluctantly. This, he argues, artificially inflates the opposition's numbers.
Direct Polls has previously distinguished itself, notably in the last Knesset elections where its bloc predictions were more accurate than others, despite discrepancies in individual party numbers. Sharon also highlighted his accurate forecast of Naftali Bennett's declining support after a political union, contrasting it with the slower-moving predictions of other firms.
Looking ahead to the upcoming elections, Sharon predicts no clear majority for either bloc, though he believes Netanyahu is closer to forming a government. However, he anticipates a broader coalition than a narrow right-wing government, suggesting national interests may necessitate a more inclusive formation. He also notes the challenge of accurately polling younger voters, a demographic he claims Direct Polls is better equipped to reach.
Sharon also addressed his past partnership with Shlomo Filber, with whom he founded Direct Polls. He described their separation in April 2025 as stemming from professional and business differences, emphasizing that he holds no ill will and that their initial collaboration was crucial during Filber's difficult personal period. Sharon also defended his firm against accusations of political bias, stating that while working with Channel 14 came at a professional cost, it provided a necessary platform when other outlets were not accessible.
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