US-Iran Tensions Linked to Trump, Netanyahu Election Calculations
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Amid escalating US-Iran threats and military buildup, experts suggest electoral calculations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are influencing the situation. Professor Ayman Yousef believes both leaders may exploit tensions for domestic political gain ahead of upcoming elections. Iran signals readiness for conflict, while Houthi actions in Yemen are seen as potentially linked to Iranian strategy and aimed at testing regional alliances. The possibility of a wider conflict remains open, with diplomatic mediation efforts ongoing.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- US-Iran tensions are escalating amid military buildup, with electoral calculations by Trump and Netanyahu potentially fueling the conflict.
- Professor Ayman Yousef suggests Netanyahu might desire war for electoral gain or to postpone Israeli elections.
- Trump may use threats to improve his negotiating position with Iran or gain US public support before midterms.
- Iran signals readiness for confrontation, threatening to close key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz.
- Houthi actions in Yemen are seen as potentially linked to Iranian strategy and aimed at testing regional alliances.
- The possibility of a wider conflict remains open, despite ongoing diplomatic mediation efforts.
Amid escalating threats between the United States and Iran, and reports of increasing US military buildup in the Middle East, experts question whether the region is heading towards a new war. These tensions arise less than two weeks before Israeli Knesset elections, where polls indicate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and right-wing parties may struggle to form a government. With U.S. midterm elections also approaching in under 40 days, political and electoral calculations by both Netanyahu and President Donald Trump are central to the situation, raising questions about the exploitation of tensions for domestic gain.
Dr. Ayman Yousef, a professor of conflict resolution and international relations, suggests several scenarios for the US-Iran confrontation. One possibility is a return to war, which he believes Netanyahu might desire for electoral advantage or to postpone the elections, potentially by up to six months. Trump, meanwhile, may use threats to bolster his negotiating position with Iran or to gain public support ahead of the US midterms. Another scenario involves increased pressure on Iran to return to negotiations, with ongoing mediation efforts by Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan.
Iran, in response, continues to signal readiness for confrontation, with actions like near-daily attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and support for the Houthis in Yemen. Yousef views these as part of a psychological and media war, aimed at projecting strength to its public, military, and regional actors. Iran also threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, impacting global security and economy. He notes that the US has tried various approaches with Iran without success, and the possibility of more destructive weapons, even tactical nuclear bombs, cannot be entirely dismissed, especially given the ideological leanings of some US and Israeli right-wing factions.
Regarding the Yemeni front, Yousef believes Iran plays a role in instigating Houthi actions, but the Houthis also pursue their own interests. The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are seen as an opportunity to gain political concessions amidst the ongoing Yemeni crisis and regional dynamics. He suggests these moves could also be an attempt to test the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish alliance, which Iran may not favor. The Houthis' actions could also serve to test the resolve of Pakistan and Turkey, who have largely maintained a neutral stance and sought political solutions.
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