Eisenkot Bloc Gains, Winter Below Threshold in New Poll

A new poll indicates a shift in the Israeli political landscape, with the "change bloc" gaining two mandates to reach 52 seats, while the "right bloc" holds 50. The "Yash" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, saw a significant increase, rising to 24 mandates from 22 in the previous survey. Conversely, parties led by Yaron Zelekha and Yoaz Hendel each dropped one mandate to four seats. Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party continues to decline, remaining below the electoral threshold amid a negative campaign by the Likud party. The right bloc as a whole lost another mandate compared to the previous week.

Naftali Bennett's "Achva" party weakened by one mandate to 12 seats, though this did not alter the overall bloc balance. Eisenkot's growing support bolsters his strategy of framing the election as a direct confrontation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Netanyahu has not responded to calls for a debate, the "Netanyahu versus Eisenkot" message appears to be resonating with voters in the "change bloc."

The poll shows the Likud with 21 mandates, Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" with nine, and Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" with six. The ultra-Orthodox parties remained stable, and no sharp shifts were observed within the "change bloc" beyond the rise of "Yash."

A complex political picture emerges, as neither Netanyahu nor the "change bloc" can form a government without relying on Arab parties. This issue is a focal point of contention among opposition leaders. Benny Gantz of "Blue and White" argues that any attempt to replace the government necessitates some form of reliance on Ra'am. In contrast, Avigdor Lieberman of "Yisrael Beiteinu" reiterated his opposition to minority governments or those dependent on external support from Arab parties, advocating for a "Zionist majority government."

Gantz responded to Lieberman by stating that either Lieberman would form a minority government with Arab parties, or the country would face new elections. Eisenkot, meanwhile, has refrained from committing to not relying on Ra'am or external Arab party support, seeking to maintain flexibility. This stance provides Netanyahu with political ammunition but also appeals to "change bloc" voters who prioritize ousting the current government.

The poll results reveal a broad openness within the "change bloc" to cooperation with Arab parties if a 61-seat majority is not achieved. 37% of "change bloc" voters would support including an Arab party in the government, 30% would support external backing, and 20% would accept a government formed through abstention by an Arab party, totaling 87% openness to these options. This challenges Lieberman's strategy, as his voters are more right-leaning but part of a bloc seeking government change.

Regarding the pre-October 7th warnings and their alleged delivery to Netanyahu, 80% of coalition voters and 56% of opposition voters stated these publications do not influence their future voting. The survey, conducted by Kantar for "Israel Hayom" between October 14-15, 2026, involved 551 participants with a maximum margin of error of 4.2%. The primary focus of the election campaign, according to the poll, remains security issues and the ability to form a government post-election.