Experts Discuss Identifying Online Radicalization Before Terror Attacks

An attempted terror attack on a Flydubai flight to Israel has reignited discussions on how to identify signs of radicalization on social media before they translate into violent acts. Investigations into the incident revealed that the Omani co-pilot, Hamza Al-Hami, held extremist views and posted thousands of radical tweets over several years. Professor Simon Perry, a researcher at the Hebrew University's Institute of Criminology and former senior police officer, explained that human behavior, including terrorism, requires both motivation and opportunity, supported by a conducive environment. He noted that the digital realm has replaced geographical communities as the primary space for radicalization, creating echo chambers based on personal choice.

Perry's research compares the online activity of terrorists with that of extremists who have not committed attacks, focusing on warning signs preceding vehicle ramming attacks. He views the co-pilot's case as a significant security lapse, comparable to the failures preceding the October 7th attacks. Perry highlighted that while extremist views are prevalent, not all extremists commit violence, and his studies have identified clear differences in online behavior between those who act and those who do not.

Austrian terror researcher Nicholas Stockhammer's work further examines the development of online radicalization, analyzing six European terror incidents. His research points to the phenomenon of the "digital rabbit hole," where individuals progress from biased news to more extreme content, including Salafi preacher sermons. These messages, often disseminated through short videos on platforms like TikTok and YouTube, foster online communities that can evolve into encrypted groups, facilitating connections with jihadist elements. Stockhammer describes this as a "virtual caliphate," a decentralized global jihadist community.

Perry's research, published in 2021 with Michael Wolfowitz, Badi Hassisi, and David Weisburd, analyzed Facebook activity of 48 Palestinian terrorists and 96 extremists who had not committed attacks. They found that terrorists shared others' posts at more than double the rate but posted original content less frequently. Terrorists also tended to glorify attacks by peers, and their posts received more shares. These findings suggest that differences in content sharing and network connections can serve as intelligence tools to identify potential attackers among those already identified as extremists.

Regarding vehicle ramming attacks, Perry noted that the decision to commit such acts is often spontaneous, sometimes made on the day of the attack. However, his 2018 research with Hassisi and Gali Perry on 62 such attacks in Israel and the West Bank found that in 26 cases, early warning signs were identified retrospectively. In many of these, individuals were aware of the attacker's extremist views, and some attackers made statements to friends or family, yet explicit warnings were rarely filed. Perry emphasized that while warning signs exist, they do not guarantee future actions, underscoring the importance of reducing opportunities for attacks.

Concerning the Omani pilot, Perry called the case an "extreme failure," noting that two airlines had previously refused to employ him due to concerns about his extremist views. He asserted that the technological tools to identify radicalization already exist, as social media algorithms are designed to identify and target radicalized individuals. The issue, he stated, was the failure to utilize these existing tools, despite Israel's high prioritization of aviation security. Perry concluded that this lapse was a security failure of the highest order, just below the level of the October 7th failures.