Lieberman Rules Out Coalition Partners, Complicating Government Formation

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, has stated he will not form a government with Benjamin Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox parties, or Arab parties. He has also rejected the idea of a minority government, such as one proposed by Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the National Unity party. This expanding list of exclusions makes coalition mathematics increasingly difficult, as polls indicate the parties aiming to replace Netanyahu may fall short of the required majority.

A recent Channel 13 poll shows five parties within the "change bloc" reaching only 54 seats, seven short of the 61 needed for a majority. Lieberman believes a solution might emerge from within the Likud party, but no Likud members have publicly committed to providing the necessary votes. The question remains whether Lieberman can form the government he envisions or if his red lines will hinder the possibility of replacing Netanyahu.

Lieberman's stance was clarified following Eisenkot's suggestion to swear in a government even with only 58 or 59 seats, planning to expand it later. Lieberman, however, insists on a government based from the outset on a majority of Zionist parties, without support from Arab parties and excluding the ultra-Orthodox. "We will not support any minority government, not even a transitional minority government," Lieberman declared, while noting that the Likud, if not led by Netanyahu, could be a significant partner.

The poll data highlights the challenge: National Unity (20 seats), New Hope and Yamina led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid (12 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats (9 seats each), and the Handel-Zelicha economic list (4 seats) total 54 seats. Even with all five cooperating, a majority is not achieved. Another poll by Walla showed a higher total of 58 seats for the same groups, still short of a majority.

Legally, a government can be formed without an explicit 61-seat majority if enough opposing members abstain or are absent. However, Lieberman rejects relying on the abstention of Arab parties, even if they are not coalition partners. His proposed alternative is to bring in Likud members who may be willing to join a coalition without Netanyahu. This scenario, using the Channel 13 poll numbers, would require at least seven additional seats from the Likud to reach 61 if the Handel-Zelicha list joins, or 11 seats if they do not. The political hurdle is the lack of any public commitment from the Likud to replace Netanyahu or join such a coalition.

Regarding the ultra-Orthodox parties, Lieberman rules out their participation, while they demand legislative arrangements for yeshiva students. The gap in positions illustrates that even if a numerical majority is possible, reaching a coalition agreement remains distant.