Israel Sets 2035 Targets for Physician Specialties Amid Growth and Shortages

Israel's Ministry of Health has released its first national targets for physician specialties, outlining projected needs by 2035 and how to distribute them across the country. The plan anticipates a significant increase in the number of active specialists, from approximately 20,300 in 2025 to 32,000 by 2035, a 57% rise. This growth is driven by an expanding and aging population, which is expected to increase demand for healthcare services. The number of medical students has surged, with over 1,400 enrolled last year and projections reaching 2,000 by 2030, contributing to an overall expected increase in physicians from 37,700 to 53,600.

The targets highlight a planned expansion in internal medicine, with numbers expected to grow from 3,880 to 6,100, and family medicine from 2,630 to 4,530. Other fields slated for substantial growth include geriatrics, emergency medicine, and vascular surgery, with some specialties nearly doubling or quadrupling. Conversely, orthopedics, ophthalmology, and plastic surgery are projected to see only about a quarter increase. The ministry aims to ensure a more equitable distribution of specialists across all regions, addressing current disparities where the central region has a disproportionate number of physicians.

A key focus of the plan is to guide the distribution of new specialists to areas with the greatest need, particularly in the periphery. The advisory committee, chaired by Director General Moshe Bar Siman Tov, has categorized specialties based on the required increase in specialists per 100,000 people. While the plan aims for uniform specialist-to-population ratios nationwide, significant regional gaps persist, especially in oncology, radiology, and psychiatry, with northern and southern regions lagging considerably.

To address these disparities, the ministry plans to implement economic incentives for hospitals and health maintenance organizations to encourage a more even distribution of specialists. However, a significant challenge not explicitly addressed in the ministry's plan is the increasing emigration of Israeli doctors. Research indicates that between 2023 and 2025, 1,369 doctors left Israel for at least a year, a rate nearly double that of the previous decade, resulting in a net loss of approximately 255 physicians annually. Bar Siman Tov acknowledged the issue, stating the ministry is monitoring retirement trends, actively working to reduce doctor emigration, and reaching out to train abroad.

The plan also notes a decrease in new doctors trained abroad due to reforms that have reduced the number of recognized international medical institutions. The ministry anticipates this will improve the quality of training for new physicians. Overall, the projected increase in physicians is expected to raise the ratio of doctors per 1,000 people from 3.6 to 4.2, and specialists from 1.9 to 2.5, potentially surpassing the OECD average.