Israel, US, France: How Election Outcomes Shape Governance

As elections loom in Israel and the United States, a key question arises: what happens when election results do not grant the ruling camp the necessary power? The answer varies significantly across democracies, revealing different approaches to governance and stability. In Israel, losing Knesset support can jeopardize a government's tenure. In the US, a president can remain in office without a congressional majority, but their ability to advance policy may be severely hampered. France presents a semi-presidential system where a president, elected by the public, can face a prime minister from an opposing party, leading to a political arrangement known as cohabitation.

In Israel's parliamentary system, citizens vote for party lists, and Knesset seats are allocated proportionally. This method ensures broad representation but often makes it difficult for a single party to achieve an independent majority, necessitating coalition negotiations. The largest party does not automatically form the government; instead, it must secure support from 61 out of 120 Knesset members. While this system allows for diverse representation, small parties can gain significant leverage in coalition talks, as seen with Naftali Bennett. Government functionality is impaired when coalition partners withdraw support, and while a government doesn't automatically fall upon losing its majority, coalition crises pose a real threat to stability. A no-confidence vote can be initiated at any time if a natural majority does not exist, leading to new elections. The 26th Knesset elections are scheduled for October 27, with over 7.3 million eligible voters.

The United States operates under a presidential system where the president is elected separately from Congress for a four-year term. Midterm elections, occurring halfway through a president's term, determine all 435 House representatives and about a third of the Senate. If the opposition gains control of either or both chambers, President Donald Trump would not lose his presidency, as his term is not dependent on congressional confidence. However, his ability to implement policy could be significantly curtailed. The Congress legislates, approves budgets, and oversees the executive branch. An opposition-controlled House can block legislation and launch investigations, while the Senate confirms key appointments. Presidential executive orders offer some autonomy but cannot replace legislation across all areas.

France's semi-presidential model involves a president elected for a five-year term and a National Assembly elected through district-based elections. The president appoints the prime minister and leads foreign policy, but the government is also accountable to the parliament. If the president's party lacks a majority in the National Assembly, the president may need to appoint a prime minister who can command parliamentary support, even from an opposing party. This cohabitation scenario shifts more power to the prime minister for domestic affairs. The government can attempt to pass laws through compromise or use Article 49.3 of the Constitution to advance legislation without a direct vote, though this exposes the government to a no-confidence vote. The president also retains the power to dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections under constitutional constraints. Recent protests in France, involving tens of thousands of students and workers, have seen clashes with security forces.