Airbus Forecasts 10 Billion Annual Passengers and 2.4 Million New Aviation Jobs by 2045
Translated & summarized from Bizportal by baba
Airbus forecasts the global aviation industry will nearly double by 2045, carrying 10 billion passengers annually and requiring 2.44 million new professionals. The services market is projected to exceed $420 billion, driven by maintenance and digital solutions. Industry growth is challenged by component shortages and a significant need for trained personnel, including pilots and technicians. Asia is expected to lead demand growth, with emerging economies playing an increasingly vital role.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Airbus predicts 10 billion annual passengers and a fleet of 45,550 aircraft by 2045.
- The aviation services market is expected to more than double to over $420 billion annually by 2045.
- The industry will need approximately 2.44 million new aviation professionals, including pilots and technicians.
- Maintenance services will constitute the largest segment of the aviation services market.
- Digital services and connectivity are projected to be the fastest-growing segment.
- Asia is anticipated to be the region with the fastest demand growth.
Airbus projects a significantly larger global aviation industry in two decades, anticipating approximately 10 billion annual passengers by 2045, nearly double the current figure. The global commercial fleet is expected to grow to around 45,550 aircraft. Alongside this expansion, the aviation services market, encompassing maintenance, repair, training, and digital systems, is forecast to more than double from its current $209 billion to over $420 billion annually by 2045, with an average annual growth rate of 3.8%. This projection focuses on services throughout an aircraft's lifecycle, excluding aircraft sales, and includes engine overhauls, inspections, spare parts, engineering, IT, connectivity, cabin upgrades, and crew training.
The industry faces significant challenges, including aircraft manufacturers struggling to meet delivery schedules due to shortages of engines and components, leading airlines to extend the service life of older planes. Airbus itself experienced delivery reductions this year because of engine supply issues, despite rising flight demand.
A major hurdle identified by Airbus is the need for approximately 2.44 million new aviation professionals over the next 20 years. This includes an estimated 1.05 million cabin crew, 730,000 maintenance technicians, and 660,000 pilots. These cumulative recruitment needs stem from both industry growth and employee retirements. Shortages of pilots and technicians are already apparent, with lengthy and costly training programs contributing to the issue. Airlines require more personnel even as aircraft supply remains constrained, a gap felt globally and in Israel, driving up wages.
Maintenance is predicted to be the largest segment of the services market, with engine and component repair and overhaul projected to reach $217 billion annually by 2045. Support services, including spare parts and engineering, are expected to reach $104 billion, while maintenance performed on in-service aircraft and components is estimated at $36 billion.
Airbus also aims to increase revenue from services over an aircraft's operational life, targeting over $10 billion in revenue from commercial aircraft services by 2030, up from approximately $5.4 billion in 2025. Digital services and connectivity are expected to be the fastest-growing segment, tripling to $27 billion annually by 2045, aiding in real-time data analysis and predictive maintenance. With about 12% of active aircraft now over 21 years old, up from 8% a decade ago, and an estimated 18,400 aircraft retiring by 2045, the market for used and refurbished parts will also grow.
Asia, particularly India, China, and other Asia-Pacific markets, is anticipated to be the fastest-growing region for demand. Europe and North America will remain significant markets, but a growing share of passengers, aircraft, and aviation workers will come from emerging middle-class economies.