Military Action Against Iran Possible, Tied to US and Israeli Elections

A military confrontation with Iran remains a strong possibility, according to Professor Hussein Al-Deek, a specialist in American affairs. He stated that disagreements between Washington and Tel Aviv are less about the principle of confrontation and more about its timing, execution, and leadership. Al-Deek noted that while the Iranian nuclear file is a primary US priority, related developments have also become an Israeli priority. Any military action could impact the US domestic scene, particularly in shaping public opinion towards war.

Al-Deek reviewed past approaches to the Iranian issue, including a 12-day solo Israeli confrontation before US intervention and a joint Israeli-American attack. He suggested the next phase might involve a different form of confrontation due to regional shifts and pressures. The US's strategic ambiguity, he believes, might be part of managing a situation that is not serving Israeli and American strategic interests.

The specialist linked military calculations to upcoming elections in both Israel and the United States, indicating that a military strike against Iran close to election dates is a possibility. He cautioned that details about potential confrontation timings, especially those linked to the period between elections, remain speculative.

Regarding US decisions, Al-Deek dismissed the idea that confrontation with Iran stems solely from President Donald Trump's personal inclinations. He emphasized that US institutions, including Congress, are involved in foreign policy decisions. He asserted that the US, despite potential challenges to its prestige, operates on strategic calculations and institutional interests, and that attributing its decisions solely to the president's whims presents an incomplete picture. Washington's considerations also include the impact of escalation on global energy markets, explaining its interest in energy understandings with Russia.

On Israeli politics, Al-Deek considers the possibility of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiating a military confrontation to serve his political interests and influence election timing as plausible. However, he also noted that Netanyahu has other options to remain politically relevant. Al-Deek suggested Netanyahu is managing relationships with smaller right-wing parties, and that the exit of some from competition could benefit his electoral bloc. He also posited that if Netanyahu's bloc fails to secure a majority, he might seek to engineer splits within the opposition, citing past instances where he shifted power dynamics by attracting figures and parties from opposing camps.

Al-Deek deemed discussions about Netanyahu's political career nearing its end as premature, highlighting his past ability to overcome significant political crises and regain popularity. He pointed to Netanyahu's recovery of his political standing after the events of October 7th as evidence of his potential to navigate current challenges. Al-Deek concluded that Netanyahu still possesses multiple political and electoral tools, with a military confrontation with Iran remaining one option, though not a foregone conclusion.