Israel Believes No Strike on Iran Before Election

Israeli security agencies assess that the country's leadership will not initiate a strike against Iran before the October 27 elections, according to Ynet, citing sources. Despite this, Israel is increasing its readiness in case Iran or its proxies attempt to interfere in the elections or launch an attack. An Israeli source indicated that Israel has communicated through various channels that Iran would make a grave mistake by intervening, warning of an unprecedentedly strong response. The decision hinges on U.S. President Donald Trump's stance, as Israel cannot attack Iran without his consent. Trump currently appears undecided, and a ground operation by the U.S. is seen as a prerequisite for any significant action, with a pre-election strike potentially causing a political catastrophe for him. There is also a concern that Iran might preemptively strike if it perceives an imminent Israeli attack.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed these sentiments in an interview with Galei Tzahal, stating that a pre-election strike on Tehran would be "inconvenient" for Israel. Meanwhile, Trump threatened a "heavy blow" against Iran amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, despite a prior promise not to strike before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Netanyahu also warned of potential escalation along the Samaria border, noting that enemies might test Israel's resolve before the elections and assuring readiness for any scenario.

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has discussed escalation risks with U.S. military command and the administration. Zamir expressed serious concerns about the political and military consequences of further confrontation with Iran, suggesting that an outbreak of hostilities could force Israel to postpone its general elections. A military flare-up at this time might compel Israel to delay its elections.